Ballkani 3–0 Larne: Result & Stats

Ballkani

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Larne

N. Gripshi 67'

A. Kryeziu 32'

A. Rrahmani 26' (pen)

7/25/2023

UEFA Europa Conference League · 2nd Qualifying RoundStadiumi Fadil Vokrri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Ballkani63%

×Draw24%

Larne13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BallkaniExpected goals in this matchLarne

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

0.62

Ballkani

1.67

Larne

0.62

Ballkani creates 169% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 11 away

1.88

creates per match

0.36

0.88

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Ballkani

1.88

Larne

0.36

allows per match

Ballkani

0.88

Larne

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ballkani+0.00on par

Larne+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ballkani ↓

Larne →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Ballkani or draw

87%

Ballkani or Larne

76%

Draw or Larne

37%

Winning margin

Ballkani wins by 2+

35%

Larne wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Ballkani 1+ goals

81%

Ballkani 2+ goals

50%

Ballkani 3+ goals

23%

Larne 1+ goals

46%

Larne 2+ goals

13%

Larne 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Ballkani (draw refunded)

82%

Larne (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ballkani at home — creates 1.88, concedes 0.88 · 17 matches

Larne away — creates 0.36, concedes 1.45 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ballkani attack 1.88 + Larne defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.67

Larne attack 0.36 + Ballkani defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Ballkani scores more

63%

level

24%

Larne scores more

13%

Ballkani at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Ballkani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

A. RrahmaniPenalty

32'

58'

62'

63'

63'

L. Ives← M. Glynn

65'

Almir Kryeziu

67'

N. Gripshi

69'

Joe Thomson

74'

A. Berisha← A. Kryeziu

77'

P. O'Neill← A. Ryan

77'

I. Westendorf← L. Bonis

82'

Shaun Want

87'

T. Maguire← T. Cosgrove

89'

A. Potoku← L. Trashi

89'

B. Tolaj← A. Rrahmani

90+3'

A. Kapra← M. Korenica

90+3'

V. Tusha← N. Gripshi

Statistics

BallkaniLarne

Overview

11Corners6

Discipline

3Yellow Cards2