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Laranja Mecânica vs Foz Do Iguacu — Paranaense - 2 2023

Laranja Mecânica
Laranja Mecânica
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Foz Do Iguacu
Foz Do Iguacu
Unknown 72', 53'
Unknown 15'
6/8/2024Paranaense - 2Paranaense - 2 · 1st Phase - 6Estádio Municipal José Chiappin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Laranja Mecânica38%
×Draw30%
Foz Do Iguacu32%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Laranja Mecânica
1.09
Foz Do Iguacu
0.99

Laranja Mecânica creates 10% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 14 away

creates per match

Laranja Mecânica
0.90
Foz Do Iguacu
1.07

allows per match

Laranja Mecânica
0.90
Foz Do Iguacu
1.29

finishing

Laranja Mecânica+0.00on par
Foz Do Iguacu+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Laranja Mecânica ↓

Foz Do Iguacu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Laranja Mecânica or draw
68%
Laranja Mecânica or Foz Do Iguacu
70%
Draw or Foz Do Iguacu
62%

Winning margin

Laranja Mecânica wins by 2+
15%
Foz Do Iguacu wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Laranja Mecânica 1+ goals
66%
Laranja Mecânica 2+ goals
30%
Laranja Mecânica 3+ goals
10%
Foz Do Iguacu 1+ goals
63%
Foz Do Iguacu 2+ goals
26%
Foz Do Iguacu 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Laranja Mecânica (draw refunded)
54%
Foz Do Iguacu (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Laranja Mecânica at home — creates 0.90, concedes 0.90 · 20 matches

Foz Do Iguacu away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Laranja Mecânica attack 0.90 + Foz Do Iguacu defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.09

Foz Do Iguacu attack 1.07 + Laranja Mecânica defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Laranja Mecânica scores more
38%
level
30%
Foz Do Iguacu scores more
32%

Laranja Mecânica at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Laranja Mecânica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
53'
72'
90+1'
90+3'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paranaense - 2: Laranja Mecânica 2–1 Foz Do Iguacu

Laranja Mecânica beat Foz Do Iguacu 2-1 in Paranaense - 2 on June 8, 2024.

Goals: ? (15', 53', 72').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal José Chiappin in Arapongas, Paraná.