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Foz Do Iguacu vs Laranja Mecânica — Paranaense - 2 2025

Foz Do Iguacu
Foz Do Iguacu
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Laranja Mecânica
Laranja Mecânica
Kaua 62'
Unknown 41'
Alan 37'
Eduardo Santos 34'
4/19/2025Paranaense - 2Paranaense - 2 · 1st Phase - 2Estádio do ABC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Foz Do Iguacu52%
×Draw25%
Laranja Mecânica23%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Foz Do Iguacu
1.65
Laranja Mecânica
1.01

Foz Do Iguacu creates 63% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 11 away

creates per match

Foz Do Iguacu
2.29
Laranja Mecânica
0.73

allows per match

Foz Do Iguacu
1.29
Laranja Mecânica
1.00

finishing

Foz Do Iguacu+0.00on par
Laranja Mecânica+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Foz Do Iguacu ↓

Laranja Mecânica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Foz Do Iguacu or draw
77%
Foz Do Iguacu or Laranja Mecânica
75%
Draw or Laranja Mecânica
48%

Winning margin

Foz Do Iguacu wins by 2+
28%
Laranja Mecânica wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Foz Do Iguacu 1+ goals
81%
Foz Do Iguacu 2+ goals
49%
Foz Do Iguacu 3+ goals
23%
Laranja Mecânica 1+ goals
64%
Laranja Mecânica 2+ goals
27%
Laranja Mecânica 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Foz Do Iguacu (draw refunded)
69%
Laranja Mecânica (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Foz Do Iguacu at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Laranja Mecânica away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Foz Do Iguacu attack 2.29 + Laranja Mecânica defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.65

Laranja Mecânica attack 0.73 + Foz Do Iguacu defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Foz Do Iguacu scores more
52%
level
25%
Laranja Mecânica scores more
23%

Foz Do Iguacu at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Foz Do Iguacu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'
Eduardo Santos
37'
Alan
41'
62'
Kaua

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paranaense - 2: Foz Do Iguacu 4–0 Laranja Mecânica

Foz Do Iguacu beat Laranja Mecânica 4-0 in Paranaense - 2 on April 19, 2025.

Goals: Eduardo Santos (34'), Alan (37'), ? (41'), Kaua (62').

The match was played at Estádio do ABC in Foz do Iguaçu, Paraná.