Laranja Mecânica 0–0 Apucarana: Result & Stats

Laranja Mecânica

FT

0 – 0

Apucarana

4/20/2022

Paranaense - 2 · 1st Phase - 3Estádio Municipal José Chiappin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Laranja Mecânica47%

×Draw29%

Apucarana23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Laranja MecânicaExpected goals in this matchApucarana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.79

Laranja Mecânica

1.25

Apucarana

0.79

Laranja Mecânica creates 58% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 24 away

1.00

creates per match

0.79

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Laranja Mecânica

1.00

Apucarana

0.79

allows per match

Laranja Mecânica

0.79

Apucarana

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Laranja Mecânica+0.00on par

Apucarana+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Laranja Mecânica ↓

Apucarana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Laranja Mecânica or draw

77%

Laranja Mecânica or Apucarana

71%

Draw or Apucarana

53%

Winning margin

Laranja Mecânica wins by 2+

21%

Apucarana wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Laranja Mecânica 1+ goals

71%

Laranja Mecânica 2+ goals

36%

Laranja Mecânica 3+ goals

13%

Apucarana 1+ goals

55%

Apucarana 2+ goals

19%

Apucarana 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Laranja Mecânica (draw refunded)

67%

Apucarana (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Laranja Mecânica at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.79 · 24 matches

Apucarana away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.50 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Laranja Mecânica attack 1.00 + Apucarana defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Apucarana attack 0.79 + Laranja Mecânica defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Laranja Mecânica scores more

47%

level

29%

Apucarana scores more

23%

Laranja Mecânica at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Laranja Mecânica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff