Apucarana 1–2 Laranja Mecânica: Result & Stats

Apucarana

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Laranja Mecânica

6/15/2024

Paranaense - 2 · 1st Phase - 7Estádio Municipal Olímpio Barreto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Apucarana50%

×Draw29%

Laranja Mecânica21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ApucaranaExpected goals in this matchLaranja Mecânica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.73

Apucarana

1.29

Laranja Mecânica

0.73

Apucarana creates 77% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 24 away

1.50

creates per match

0.75

0.71

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Apucarana

1.50

Laranja Mecânica

0.75

allows per match

Apucarana

0.71

Laranja Mecânica

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Apucarana+0.00on par

Laranja Mecânica+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Apucarana ↓

Laranja Mecânica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Apucarana or draw

79%

Apucarana or Laranja Mecânica

71%

Draw or Laranja Mecânica

50%

Winning margin

Apucarana wins by 2+

23%

Laranja Mecânica wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Apucarana 1+ goals

72%

Apucarana 2+ goals

37%

Apucarana 3+ goals

14%

Laranja Mecânica 1+ goals

52%

Laranja Mecânica 2+ goals

17%

Laranja Mecânica 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Apucarana (draw refunded)

70%

Laranja Mecânica (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Apucarana at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.71 · 24 matches

Laranja Mecânica away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.08 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Apucarana attack 1.50 + Laranja Mecânica defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.29

Laranja Mecânica attack 0.75 + Apucarana defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Apucarana scores more

50%

level

29%

Laranja Mecânica scores more

21%

Apucarana at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Apucarana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff