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Lao Toyota vs Kaya — AFC Cup 2018

Lao Toyota
Lao Toyota
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Kaya
Kaya
2/27/2019AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 1New Laos National Stadium (Vientiane)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Lao Toyota33%
×Draw24%
Kaya43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lao Toyota
1.38
Kaya
1.63

Kaya creates 18% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 12 away

creates per match

Lao Toyota
0.67
Kaya
1.08

allows per match

Lao Toyota
2.17
Kaya
2.08

finishing

Lao Toyota+0.00on par
Kaya+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lao Toyota ↓

Kaya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Lao Toyota or draw
57%
Lao Toyota or Kaya
76%
Draw or Kaya
67%

Winning margin

Lao Toyota wins by 2+
15%
Kaya wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Lao Toyota 1+ goals
75%
Lao Toyota 2+ goals
40%
Lao Toyota 3+ goals
16%
Kaya 1+ goals
80%
Kaya 2+ goals
48%
Kaya 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Lao Toyota (draw refunded)
43%
Kaya (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lao Toyota at home — creates 0.67, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

Kaya away — creates 1.08, concedes 2.08 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lao Toyota attack 0.67 + Kaya defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.38

Kaya attack 1.08 + Lao Toyota defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Lao Toyota scores more
33%
level
24%
Kaya scores more
43%

Kaya at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Kaya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lao Toyota vs Kaya

Lao Toyota and Kaya drew 1-1 in AFC Cup on February 27, 2019.

The match was played at New Laos National Stadium (Vientiane).