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Kaya vs Lao Toyota — AFC Cup 2018

Kaya
Kaya
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Lao Toyota
Lao Toyota
4/30/2019AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 5Panaad Stadium (Bacolod City)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Kaya55%
×Draw19%
Lao Toyota26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kaya
2.52
Lao Toyota
1.69

Kaya creates 49% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 5 away

creates per match

Kaya
1.25
Lao Toyota
1.80

allows per match

Kaya
1.58
Lao Toyota
3.80

finishing

Kaya+0.00on par
Lao Toyota+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaya ↓

Lao Toyota →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Kaya or draw
74%
Kaya or Lao Toyota
81%
Draw or Lao Toyota
45%

Winning margin

Kaya wins by 2+
35%
Lao Toyota wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Kaya 1+ goals
92%
Kaya 2+ goals
71%
Kaya 3+ goals
45%
Lao Toyota 1+ goals
82%
Lao Toyota 2+ goals
50%
Lao Toyota 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Kaya (draw refunded)
68%
Lao Toyota (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaya at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.58 · 12 matches

Lao Toyota away — creates 1.80, concedes 3.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaya attack 1.25 + Lao Toyota defence 3.80 → ÷2 → 2.52

Lao Toyota attack 1.80 + Kaya defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Kaya scores more
55%
level
19%
Lao Toyota scores more
26%

Kaya at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Kaya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Cup: Kaya 5–1 Lao Toyota

Kaya beat Lao Toyota 5-1 in AFC Cup on April 30, 2019.

The match was played at Panaad Stadium (Bacolod City).