Lanzarote 1–1 Guía: Result & Stats

Lanzarote

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Guía

Josua 41'

Melo 87'

3/17/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 10Ciudad Deportiva de Lanzarote

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Lanzarote60%

×Draw23%

Guía17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LanzaroteExpected goals in this matchGuía

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

0.85

Lanzarote

1.82

Guía

0.85

Lanzarote creates 114% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 14 away

1.58

creates per match

1.07

0.63

allows per match

2.07

creates per match

Lanzarote

1.58

Guía

1.07

allows per match

Lanzarote

0.63

Guía

2.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lanzarote+0.00on par

Guía+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lanzarote ↓

Guía →

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Lanzarote or draw

83%

Lanzarote or Guía

77%

Draw or Guía

40%

Winning margin

Lanzarote wins by 2+

35%

Guía wins by 2+

Team goals

Lanzarote 1+ goals

84%

Lanzarote 2+ goals

54%

Lanzarote 3+ goals

27%

Guía 1+ goals

57%

Guía 2+ goals

21%

Guía 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Lanzarote (draw refunded)

78%

Guía (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Lanzarote at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.63 · 107 matches

Guía away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.07 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Lanzarote attack 1.58 + Guía defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.82

Guía attack 1.07 + Lanzarote defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 60%?"

Lanzarote scores more

60%

level

23%

Guía scores more

17%

Lanzarote at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Lanzarote will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'

Josua

46'

Rubén Mendoza← Omar Díaz

67'

Luisja← Alberto Sanfiel

74'

Melo← Javi Mejías

74'

Aythami← Jesús Farías

77'

B. Ibarguen← Nacho

81'

Dani Gonzalez← Miguel Gopar

87'

Melo

90'

A. Ba← Ayoze

Lanzarote

Guía

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: Josu Uribe

81'▲Dani Gonzalez←▼Miguel Gopar

90'▲A. Ba←▼Ayoze

Lanzarote substitutes

GonzalezBa

46'▲Rubén Mendoza←▼Omar Díaz

67'▲Luisja←▼Alberto Sanfiel

74'▲Melo←▼Javi Mejías

74'▲Aythami←▼Jesús Farías

77'▲B. Ibarguen←▼Nacho

Guía substitutes

MendozaLuisjaMeloAythamiIbarguen

Match Recap: Lanzarote vs Guía

Lanzarote and Guía drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on March 17, 2021.

Goals: Josua (41'), Melo (87').

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva de Lanzarote in Lanzarote.

Lanzarote vs Guía — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Lanzarote vs Guía