Guía 2–1 Lanzarote: Result & Stats

Guía

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Lanzarote

Joaquín 66', 46'

Ayoze 90+3'

10/18/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 1Estadio Octavio Estevez de Guia de Gran Canaria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Guía39%

×Draw26%

Lanzarote34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GuíaExpected goals in this matchLanzarote

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.25

Guía

1.35

Lanzarote

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 108 away

1.43

creates per match

1.20

1.29

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Guía

1.43

Lanzarote

1.20

allows per match

Guía

1.29

Lanzarote

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guía+0.00on par

Lanzarote+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guía ↓

Lanzarote →

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Guía or draw

66%

Guía or Lanzarote

74%

Draw or Lanzarote

61%

Winning margin

Guía wins by 2+

18%

Lanzarote wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Guía 1+ goals

74%

Guía 2+ goals

39%

Guía 3+ goals

15%

Lanzarote 1+ goals

71%

Lanzarote 2+ goals

36%

Lanzarote 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Guía (draw refunded)

53%

Lanzarote (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Guía at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

Lanzarote away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.28 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Guía attack 1.43 + Lanzarote defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.35

Lanzarote attack 1.20 + Guía defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

Guía scores more

39%

level

26%

Lanzarote scores more

34%

Guía at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Guía will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

Joaquín

53'

Miguel← Benítez

53'

Ayoze← Machín

58'

Ubay← Jesús Farías

66'

Joaquín

68'

Dani Gonzalez← Rodrigo

69'

Delgado← Maceo

69'

Ale López← Eduardo Bolaños

79'

Kevin Castro← Nando Cózar

79'

Julyan Ayala← Víctor Rodríguez

80'

David← Alexander Martel

80'

Kilian← Cristian

90+3'

Ayoze

Guía

Lanzarote

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

Manager: Moisés Díaz

58'▲Ubay←▼Jesús Farías

69'▲Delgado←▼Maceo

69'▲Ale López←▼Eduardo Bolaños

80'▲David←▼Alexander Martel

80'▲Kilian←▼Cristian

Guía substitutes

UbayDelgadoLópezDavidKilian

Manager: Josu Uribe

53'▲Miguel←▼Benítez

53'▲Ayoze←▼Machín

68'▲Dani Gonzalez←▼Rodrigo

79'▲Kevin Castro←▼Nando Cózar

79'▲Julyan Ayala←▼Víctor Rodríguez

Lanzarote substitutes

MiguelAyozeGonzalezCastroAyala

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Guía 2–1 Lanzarote

Guía beat Lanzarote 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on October 18, 2020.

Goals: Joaquín (46', 66'), Ayoze (90+3').

The match was played at Estadio Octavio Estevez de Guia de Gran Canaria in Las Palmas.

Guía vs Lanzarote — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Guía 2–1 Lanzarote