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Lanus vs Tigre — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Lanus
Lanus
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Tigre
Tigreadvanced
D. Romero 48'
11/27/2025Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · Round of 16Estadio Ciudad de Lanus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Lanus40%
×Draw30%
Tigre29%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lanus
1.12
Tigre
0.91

Lanus creates 23% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 14 away

creates per match

Lanus
1.19
Tigre
0.86

allows per match

Lanus
0.96
Tigre
1.05

finishing

Lanus-0.05on par
Tigre+0.07on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lanus ↓

Tigre →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Lanus or draw
71%
Lanus or Tigre
70%
Draw or Tigre
60%

Winning margin

Lanus wins by 2+
17%
Tigre wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Lanus 1+ goals
67%
Lanus 2+ goals
31%
Lanus 3+ goals
10%
Tigre 1+ goals
60%
Tigre 2+ goals
23%
Tigre 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Lanus (draw refunded)
58%
Tigre (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lanus at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.96 · 7 matches

Tigre away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.05 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lanus attack 1.19 + Tigre defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.12

Tigre attack 0.86 + Lanus defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Lanus scores more
40%
level
30%
Tigre scores more
29%

Lanus at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Lanus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
D. RomeroTigreTigre · F
7.9

Match Events

27'
Ramiro Carrera
41'
Gonzalo Piñeiro
48'
D. Romero↳ I. Russo
60'
A. Mendez← G. Perez
60'
D. Aquino← F. N. Watson
62'
B. Leyes← G. Pineiro
62'
J. Saralegui← E. Cabrera
66'
Rodrigo CastilloGoal cancelled
73'
A. Barrionuevo← G. Soto
78'
W. Bou← R. Carrera
83'
J. Elias← D. Romero
83'
S. G. Rivero← S. Medina
84'
A. Segovia← E. Salvio
90+8'
Marcelino Moreno

Possession

69%Lanus

Shots

18Lanus

Pass accuracy

56%Lanus

Statistics

LanusTigre
Overview
69%Possession31%
18Total Shots9
0.81Expected Goals (xG)0.61
2Corners1
13Fouls12
Shots
18Total Shots9
3On Target1
8Off Target4
7Blocked4
12Inside Box3
6Outside Box6
Passing
69%Possession31%
530Total Passes244
439Accurate Passes158
83%Pass Accuracy65%
Goalkeeping
0Saves3
0.16Goals Prevented0.16
Discipline
13Fouls12
2Yellow Cards1
1Offsides0

Match Recap: Lanus vs Tigre

Tigre beat Lanus 1-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on November 27, 2025.

Goals: D. Romero (48').

Lanus controlled possession (69%) and registered 18 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estadio Ciudad de Lanus in Buenos Aires.