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Lanus vs Tigre — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Lanus
Lanus
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Tigre
Tigre
W. Bou 90'
E. Salvio 69', 56'
F. Monzón 73'
R. Carrera 37' (OG)
8/4/2024Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 9Estadio Ciudad de Lanús - Néstor Díaz Pérez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Lanus41%
×Draw30%
Tigre28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lanus
1.13
Tigre
0.88

Lanus creates 28% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 15 away

creates per match

Lanus
1.20
Tigre
0.84

allows per match

Lanus
0.91
Tigre
1.06

finishing

Lanus+0.18scores more
Tigre+0.16scores more

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lanus ↓

Tigre →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Lanus or draw
72%
Lanus or Tigre
70%
Draw or Tigre
59%

Winning margin

Lanus wins by 2+
17%
Tigre wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Lanus 1+ goals
68%
Lanus 2+ goals
31%
Lanus 3+ goals
11%
Tigre 1+ goals
59%
Tigre 2+ goals
22%
Tigre 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Lanus (draw refunded)
59%
Tigre (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lanus at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.91 · 8 matches

Tigre away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.06 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lanus attack 1.20 + Tigre defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.13

Tigre attack 0.84 + Lanus defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Lanus scores more
41%
level
30%
Tigre scores more
28%

Lanus at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Lanus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14
E. SalvioLanusLanus · M
8.0

Match Events

30'
Brian Leizza
37'
R. CarreraOwn goal
38'
D. Aquino← R. Loaiza
46'
N. Domínguez← G. Pérez
46'
Lautaro Acosta← R. Carrera
56'
E. Salvio↳ D. Aquino
62'
E. Ramírez← B. Armoa
69'
E. Salvio↳ D. Aquino
71'
Florián Monzón
73'
F. Monzón↳ E. Ramírez
79'
S. González← G. Maroni
81'
M. Sanabria← E. Salvio
90+3'
E. Muñoz← W. Bou
90'
W. Bou↳ M. Sanabria

Possession

49%Lanus

Shots

17Lanus

Pass accuracy

50%Lanus

Statistics

LanusTigre
Overview
49%Possession51%
17Total Shots14
1.26Expected Goals (xG)0.56
4Corners0
8Fouls8
Shots
17Total Shots14
8On Target7
6Off Target5
3Blocked2
10Inside Box5
7Outside Box9
Passing
49%Possession51%
455Total Passes487
366Accurate Passes385
80%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
6Saves5
-1.04Goals Prevented-1.04
Discipline
8Fouls8
0Yellow Cards2
2Offsides3

Liga Profesional Argentina: Lanus 3–2 Tigre

Lanus beat Tigre 3-2 in Liga Profesional Argentina on August 4, 2024.

Goals: R. Carrera (37' o.g.), E. Salvio (56', 69'), F. Monzón (73'), W. Bou (90').

Tigre controlled possession (51%) and registered 14 shots to 17.

The match was played at Estadio Ciudad de Lanús - Néstor Díaz Pérez in Lanús, Provincia de Buenos Aires.