Lanus 0–0 Independiente Medellin: Result & Stats

Lanus

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Independiente Medellin

9/19/2024

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Quarter-finalsEstadio Ciudad de Lanús - Néstor Díaz Pérez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Lanus53%

×Draw23%

Independiente Medellin24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LanusExpected goals in this matchIndependiente Medellin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.11

Lanus

1.79

Independiente Medellin

1.11

Lanus creates 61% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 9 away

1.79

creates per match

1.44

0.79

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Lanus

1.79

Independiente Medellin

1.44

allows per match

Lanus

0.79

Independiente Medellin

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lanus+0.00on par

Independiente Medellin+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lanus ↓

Independiente Medellin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Lanus or draw

76%

Lanus or Independiente Medellin

77%

Draw or Independiente Medellin

47%

Winning margin

Lanus wins by 2+

30%

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Lanus 1+ goals

83%

Lanus 2+ goals

53%

Lanus 3+ goals

26%

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals

67%

Independiente Medellin 2+ goals

30%

Independiente Medellin 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Lanus (draw refunded)

69%

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lanus at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.79 · 24 matches

Independiente Medellin away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lanus attack 1.79 + Independiente Medellin defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.79

Independiente Medellin attack 1.44 + Lanus defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Lanus scores more

53%

level

23%

Independiente Medellin scores more

24%

Lanus at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Lanus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

E. Chaux

Independiente Medellin · G

9.0

Match Events

31'

Carlos IzquierdozGoal cancelled

39'

Carlos IzquierdozPenalty cancelled

40'

Brayan Léon Muñiz

43'

Raúl Loaiza

57'

E. Muñoz← A. Luciatti

67'

67'

71'

72'

79'

79'

K. Valencia← L. Sandoval

79'

J. Mosquera← B. Perlaza

81'

Lautaro Acosta← E. Salvio

90+4'

M. García← B. León

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LanusIndependiente

Overview

51%Possession49%

29Total Shots8

11Corners3

14Fouls18

Shots

29Total Shots8

8On Target3

7Off Target1

14Blocked4

14Inside Box3

15Outside Box5

Passing

51%Possession49%

382Total Passes381

308Accurate Passes296

81%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

3Saves8

Discipline

14Fouls18

2Yellow Cards3

2Offsides2

Match Recap: Lanus vs Independiente Medellin

Lanus and Independiente Medellin drew 0-0 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on September 19, 2024.

Lanus controlled possession (51%) and registered 29 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estadio Ciudad de Lanús - Néstor Díaz Pérez in Lanús, Provincia de Buenos Aires.

Lanus vs Independiente Medellin — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Lanus vs Independiente Medellin