Independiente Medellin 1–1 Lanus: Result & Stats

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independiente MedellinExpected goals in this matchLanus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.05

Independiente Medellin

1.57

Lanus

1.05

Independiente Medellin creates 50% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 23 away

2.11

creates per match

1.22

0.89

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

Independiente Medellin

2.11

Lanus

1.22

allows per match

Independiente Medellin

0.89

Lanus

1.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Independiente Medellin+0.00on par

Lanus+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Medellin ↓

Lanus →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Independiente Medellin or draw

75%

Independiente Medellin or Lanus

75%

Draw or Lanus

51%

Winning margin

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+

25%

Lanus wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals

79%

Independiente Medellin 2+ goals

46%

Independiente Medellin 3+ goals

21%

Lanus 1+ goals

65%

Lanus 2+ goals

28%

Lanus 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)

66%

Lanus (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Medellin at home — creates 2.11, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

Lanus away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.04 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Medellin attack 2.11 + Lanus defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.57

Lanus attack 1.22 + Independiente Medellin defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Independiente Medellin scores more

49%

level

25%

Lanus scores more

25%

Independiente Medellin at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Independiente Medellin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

L. Sandoval

Independiente Medellin · F

7.6

Match Events

-5'

Lautaro Acosta

28'

Jímer Fory

37'

Daniel Londoño

39'

D. LondoñoOwn goal

46'

M. García← J. Alvarado

46'

F. Chaverra← D. Londoño

46'

F. Peña← R. Loaiza

61'

M. García↳ J. Fory

73'

Felipe Peña Biafore

74'

G. Pérez← N. Domínguez

83'

P. Lima← H. Martínez

84'

Brayan Léon Muñiz

86'

J. Torres← R. Carrera

90+4'

Marcelino Moreno

90+3'

J. Aja← F. Torijano

120+1'

W. BouPenalty

120+2'

L. ChaverraPenalty

120+3'

C. IzquierdozMissed penalty

120+4'

F. ChaverraPenalty

120+5'

E. SalvioPenalty

120+6'

P. LimaMissed penalty

120+7'

J. SolerPenalty

120+8'

F. PeñaPenalty

120+9'

L. SandovalPenalty

120+10'

J. AjaPenalty

120+11'

J. TorresPenalty

120+12'

J. ForyPenalty

120+13'

M. MorenoPenalty

120+14'

J. MosqueraMissed penalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IndependienteLanus

Overview

66%Possession34%

16Total Shots10

5Corners2

13Fouls13

Shots

16Total Shots10

5On Target4

6Off Target5

5Blocked1

7Inside Box5

9Outside Box5

Passing

66%Possession34%

475Total Passes240

387Accurate Passes154

81%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls13

3Yellow Cards3

0Offsides1

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Independiente Medellin 1–1 Lanus

Independiente Medellin and Lanus drew 1-1 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on September 26, 2024.

Goals: D. Londoño (39' o.g.), M. García (61'), W. Bou (120+1' pen), L. Chaverra (120+2' pen), F. Chaverra (120+4' pen), E. Salvio (120+5' pen), J. Soler (120+7' pen), F. Peña (120+8' pen), L. Sandoval (120+9' pen), J. Aja (120+10' pen), J. Torres (120+11' pen), J. Fory (120+12' pen), M. Moreno (120+13' pen).

Independiente Medellin controlled possession (66%) and registered 16 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio Atanasio Girardot in Medellín.

Independiente Medellin vs Lanus — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Independiente Medellin 1–1 Lanus