Lanus 0–0 Independiente del Valle: Result & Stats

Lanus

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Independiente del Valle

7/7/2022

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Round of 16Estadio Ciudad de Lanús - Néstor Díaz Pérez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Lanus48%

×Draw27%

Independiente del Valle25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LanusExpected goals in this matchIndependiente del Valle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

0.94

Lanus

1.40

Independiente del Valle

0.94

Lanus creates 49% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 11 away

1.79

creates per match

1.09

0.79

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Lanus

1.79

Independiente del Valle

1.09

allows per match

Lanus

0.79

Independiente del Valle

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lanus+0.00on par

Independiente del Valle+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lanus ↓

Independiente del Valle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Lanus or draw

75%

Lanus or Independiente del Valle

73%

Draw or Independiente del Valle

52%

Winning margin

Lanus wins by 2+

23%

Independiente del Valle wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Lanus 1+ goals

75%

Lanus 2+ goals

41%

Lanus 3+ goals

17%

Independiente del Valle 1+ goals

61%

Independiente del Valle 2+ goals

24%

Independiente del Valle 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Lanus (draw refunded)

65%

Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lanus at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.79 · 24 matches

Independiente del Valle away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lanus attack 1.79 + Independiente del Valle defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.40

Independiente del Valle attack 1.09 + Lanus defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Lanus scores more

48%

level

27%

Independiente del Valle scores more

25%

Lanus at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Lanus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

D. Braghieri

Lanus · D

8.0

Match Events

26'

Luis Segovia

45+3'

Jhoanner Chávez

46'

S. Careaga← M. González

48'

Jonathan Bauman

67'

L. Ortíz← J. Sornoza

68'

C. Spinelli← L. Varaldo

73'

Raúl Loaiza

75'

M. Angulo← F. Gaibor

76'

L. Díaz← Jaimen Ayoví

77'

M. Sanabria← S. Careaga

77'

J. Aude← N. Pasquini

84'

Tomás Belmonte

88'

B. Caicedo← J. Chávez

88'

D. Cabezas← L. Faravelli

90+1'

F. Orozco← L. Acosta

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LanusIndependiente

Overview

67%Possession33%

8Total Shots10

6Corners1

13Fouls16

Shots

8Total Shots10

4On Target3

4Off Target3

0Blocked4

3Inside Box2

5Outside Box8

Passing

67%Possession33%

513Total Passes272

416Accurate Passes174

81%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls16

2Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

5Offsides1

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Lanus 0–0 Independiente del Valle

Lanus and Independiente del Valle drew 0-0 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on July 7, 2022.

Lanus controlled possession (67%) and registered 8 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio Ciudad de Lanús - Néstor Díaz Pérez in Lanús, Provincia de Buenos Aires.

Lanus vs Independiente del Valle — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Lanus 0–0 Independiente del Valle