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Independiente del Valle vs Lanus — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Independiente del Valle
Independiente del Valleadvanced
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Lanus
Lanus
Jaimen Ayoví 90+3'
R. Schunke 45+2'
T. Belmonte 61'
6/30/2022CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · Round of 16Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Independiente del Valle47%
×Draw27%
Lanus26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independiente del Valle
1.41
Lanus
0.99

Independiente del Valle creates 42% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 23 away

creates per match

Independiente del Valle
1.77
Lanus
1.22

allows per match

Independiente del Valle
0.77
Lanus
1.04

finishing

Independiente del Valle+0.00on par
Lanus+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente del Valle ↓

Lanus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Independiente del Valle or draw
74%
Independiente del Valle or Lanus
73%
Draw or Lanus
53%

Winning margin

Independiente del Valle wins by 2+
23%
Lanus wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Independiente del Valle 1+ goals
76%
Independiente del Valle 2+ goals
41%
Independiente del Valle 3+ goals
17%
Lanus 1+ goals
63%
Lanus 2+ goals
26%
Lanus 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)
64%
Lanus (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente del Valle at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.77 · 13 matches

Lanus away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.04 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente del Valle attack 1.77 + Lanus defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.41

Lanus attack 1.22 + Independiente del Valle defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Independiente del Valle scores more
47%
level
27%
Lanus scores more
26%

Independiente del Valle at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Independiente del Valle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
R. SchunkeIndependiente del ValleIndependiente del Valle · D
8.3

Match Events

11'
Jonathan Bauman
25'
Matías Pérez
45+2'
R. Schunke↳ J. Sornoza
46'
Jaimen Ayoví← M. Angulo
61'
T. Belmonte
72'
D. Cabezas← J. Chávez
75'
Nicolás Pasquini
77'
B. Arce← L. Díaz
77'
L. Varaldo← L. Acosta
83'
F. Pérez← J. Sand
87'
Tomás Belmonte
88'
Fernando Monetti
90+6'
Facundo Pérez
90'
B. Caicedo← F. Gaibor
90+3'
Jaimen Ayoví↳ D. Cabezas

Possession

78%Independiente

Shots

17Independiente

Pass accuracy

56%Independiente

Statistics

IndependienteLanus
Overview
78%Possession22%
17Total Shots4
8Corners1
9Fouls16
Shots
17Total Shots4
7On Target3
5Off Target1
5Blocked0
6Inside Box1
11Outside Box3
Passing
78%Possession22%
646Total Passes188
570Accurate Passes127
88%Pass Accuracy68%
Goalkeeping
2Saves5
Discipline
9Fouls16
1Yellow Cards5
2Offsides4

Match Recap: Independiente del Valle vs Lanus

Independiente del Valle beat Lanus 2-1 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on June 30, 2022.

Goals: R. Schunke (45+2'), T. Belmonte (61'), Jaimen Ayoví (90+3').

Independiente del Valle controlled possession (78%) and registered 17 shots to 4.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa in Quito.