Lanus 1–0 Always Ready: Result & Stats

Lanus

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Always Ready

Y. Valois 67'

4/16/2026

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 2Estadio Ciudad de Lanus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Lanus73%

×Draw21%

Always Ready6%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LanusExpected goals in this matchAlways Ready

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

0.32

Lanus

1.73

Always Ready

0.32

Lanus creates 441% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 11 away

1.00

creates per match

0.64

0.00

allows per match

2.45

creates per match

Lanus

1.00

Always Ready

0.64

allows per match

Lanus

0.00

Always Ready

2.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lanus+0.00on par

Always Ready+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No77
Yes23

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lanus ↓

Always Ready →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–022%

1–17%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–019%

2–16%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (22%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Lanus or draw

94%

Lanus or Always Ready

79%

Draw or Always Ready

27%

Winning margin

Lanus wins by 2+

44%

Always Ready wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Lanus 1+ goals

82%

Lanus 2+ goals

52%

Lanus 3+ goals

25%

Always Ready 1+ goals

27%

Always Ready 2+ goals

4%

Always Ready 3+ goals

0%

Draw no bet

Lanus (draw refunded)

92%

Always Ready (draw refunded)

8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

15%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lanus at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.00 · 3 matches

Always Ready away — creates 0.64, concedes 2.45 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lanus attack 1.00 + Always Ready defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 1.73

Always Ready attack 0.64 + Lanus defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 0.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Lanus scores more

73%

level

21%

Always Ready scores more

6%

Lanus at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Lanus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

R. Carrera

Lanus · F

7.9

Match Events

13'

José Canale

46'

Y. Valois← F. N. Watson

58'

Marcelino Moreno← A. Medina

65'

D. Aquino← E. Salvio

66'

Richet Gomez

67'

Y. Valois

69'

J. Amoroso← F. Saucedo

77'

J. Godoy← Y. D. Hurtado Torres

80'

M. Sepulveda← L. Besozzi

80'

F. Sanchez← R. Carrera

83'

88'

88'

88'

90+1'

D. Rodriguez← F. Nava

90+1'

C. Rodriguez← R. Gomez Miranda

90+1'

F. Pasadore← E. Triverio

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LanusAlways

Overview

65%Possession35%

26Total Shots5

2.44Expected Goals (xG)0.51

11Corners1

10Fouls12

Shots

26Total Shots5

7On Target1

14Off Target4

5Blocked0

17Inside Box3

9Outside Box2

Passing

65%Possession35%

523Total Passes284

429Accurate Passes205

82%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

0.26Goals Prevented0.26

Discipline

10Fouls12

1Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1