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Always Ready vs Lanus — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Always Ready
Always Ready
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Lanus
Lanus
M. Suarez 89'
J. Amoroso 46'
E. Triverio 45'
R. Gomez Miranda 26'
5/6/2026CONMEBOL LibertadoresCONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 4Estadio Municipal de El Alto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Always Ready74%
×Draw18%
Lanus8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Always Ready
2.08
Lanus
0.50

Always Ready creates 316% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 3 away

creates per match

Always Ready
1.83
Lanus
0.00

allows per match

Always Ready
1.00
Lanus
2.33

finishing

Always Ready+0.00on par
Lanus+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Always Ready ↓

Lanus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–18%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–16%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Always Ready or draw
92%
Always Ready or Lanus
82%
Draw or Lanus
26%

Winning margin

Always Ready wins by 2+
49%
Lanus wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Always Ready 1+ goals
87%
Always Ready 2+ goals
61%
Always Ready 3+ goals
34%
Lanus 1+ goals
39%
Lanus 2+ goals
9%
Lanus 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Always Ready (draw refunded)
91%
Lanus (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Always Ready at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.00 · 12 matches

Lanus away — creates 0.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Always Ready attack 1.83 + Lanus defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.08

Lanus attack 0.00 + Always Ready defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Always Ready scores more
74%
level
18%
Lanus scores more
8%

Always Ready at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Always Ready will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
A. BarojaAlways ReadyAlways Ready · G
8.5

Match Events

26'
R. Gomez Miranda↳ H. Cuellar
45'
E. Triverio↳ C. Rodriguez
46'
D. Aquino← M. Sepulveda
46'
J. Amoroso↳ J. Maraude
62'
F. Nava← J. Amoroso
63'
F. N. Watson← Marcelino Moreno
63'
Y. Valois← R. Carrera
64'
D. Rodriguez
74'
D. Torrico
75'
M. Suarez← D. Rodriguez
76'
J. Godoy← E. Triverio
76'
M. Mamani← F. Saucedo
77'
A. Medina← F. Pena Biafore
83'
A. Medina
83'
R. De Jesus← C. Izquierdoz
88'
R. Lima← J. Maraude
89'
M. Suarez↳ F. Nava

Possession

63%Always

Shots

24Always

Pass accuracy

56%Always

Statistics

AlwaysLanus
Overview
63%Possession37%
24Total Shots7
2.72Expected Goals (xG)0.53
2Corners5
16Fouls6
Shots
24Total Shots7
10On Target4
12Off Target2
2Blocked1
11Inside Box3
13Outside Box4
Passing
63%Possession37%
427Total Passes246
395Accurate Passes176
93%Pass Accuracy72%
Goalkeeping
4Saves6
-1.68Goals Prevented-1.68
Discipline
16Fouls6
2Yellow Cards1
1Offsides1

CONMEBOL Libertadores: Always Ready 4–0 Lanus

Always Ready beat Lanus 4-0 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on May 6, 2026.

Goals: R. Gomez Miranda (26'), E. Triverio (45'), J. Amoroso (46'), M. Suarez (89').

Always Ready controlled possession (63%) and registered 24 shots to 7.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de El Alto in El Alto.