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Langwarrin vs Brunswick City — Victoria NPL 2 2026

Langwarrin
Langwarrin
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Brunswick City
Brunswick City
Unknown 50'
Unknown 76', 63'
3/1/2025Victoria NPL 2Victoria NPL 2 · Round 4Lawton Park Reserve - Pitch 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Langwarrin41%
×Draw22%
Brunswick City37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Langwarrin
1.83
Brunswick City
1.73

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 68 away

creates per match

Langwarrin
1.82
Brunswick City
1.46

allows per match

Langwarrin
2.01
Brunswick City
1.84

finishing

Langwarrin+0.00on par
Brunswick City+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Langwarrin ↓

Brunswick City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Langwarrin or draw
63%
Langwarrin or Brunswick City
78%
Draw or Brunswick City
59%

Winning margin

Langwarrin wins by 2+
22%
Brunswick City wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Langwarrin 1+ goals
84%
Langwarrin 2+ goals
54%
Langwarrin 3+ goals
28%
Brunswick City 1+ goals
82%
Brunswick City 2+ goals
52%
Brunswick City 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Langwarrin (draw refunded)
53%
Brunswick City (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Langwarrin at home — creates 1.82, concedes 2.01 · 68 matches

Brunswick City away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.84 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Langwarrin attack 1.82 + Brunswick City defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.83

Brunswick City attack 1.46 + Langwarrin defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Langwarrin scores more
41%
level
22%
Brunswick City scores more
37%

Langwarrin at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Langwarrin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

50'
63'
76'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Langwarrin vs Brunswick City

Brunswick City beat Langwarrin 2-1 in Victoria NPL 2 on March 1, 2025.

Goals: ? (50', 63', 76').

The match was played at Lawton Park Reserve - Pitch 1 in Langwarrin South.