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Brunswick City vs Langwarrin — Victoria NPL 2 2026

Brunswick City
Brunswick City
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Langwarrin
Langwarrin
D. Allshorn 90'
K. Emmanuel 90'
T. Skapetis 57'
S. Fatemi 86'
4/24/2026Victoria NPL 2Victoria NPL 2 · Round 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Brunswick City44%
×Draw23%
Langwarrin33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brunswick City
1.79
Langwarrin
1.53

Brunswick City creates 17% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 67 away

creates per match

Brunswick City
1.74
Langwarrin
1.42

allows per match

Brunswick City
1.64
Langwarrin
1.84

finishing

Brunswick City+0.00on par
Langwarrin+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brunswick City ↓

Langwarrin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Brunswick City or draw
67%
Brunswick City or Langwarrin
77%
Draw or Langwarrin
56%

Winning margin

Brunswick City wins by 2+
23%
Langwarrin wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Brunswick City 1+ goals
83%
Brunswick City 2+ goals
53%
Brunswick City 3+ goals
26%
Langwarrin 1+ goals
78%
Langwarrin 2+ goals
45%
Langwarrin 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Brunswick City (draw refunded)
57%
Langwarrin (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brunswick City at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.64 · 66 matches

Langwarrin away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.84 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brunswick City attack 1.74 + Langwarrin defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.79

Langwarrin attack 1.42 + Brunswick City defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Brunswick City scores more
44%
level
23%
Langwarrin scores more
33%

Brunswick City at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Brunswick City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

57'
T. Skapetis
86'
S. Fatemi
90'
D. Allshorn
90'
K. Emmanuel

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Victoria NPL 2: Brunswick City 3–1 Langwarrin

Brunswick City beat Langwarrin 3-1 in Victoria NPL 2 on April 24, 2026.

Goals: T. Skapetis (57'), S. Fatemi (86'), D. Allshorn (90'), K. Emmanuel (90').