Langwarrin 3–0 Bentleigh Greens: Result & Stats

Langwarrin

FT

3 – 0

Bentleigh Greens

2/10/2024

Victoria NPL 2 · Round 1Lawton Park Reserve - Pitch 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Langwarrin37%

×Draw23%

Bentleigh Greens40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LangwarrinExpected goals in this matchBentleigh Greens

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.72

Langwarrin

1.64

Bentleigh Greens

1.72

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 67 home / 26 away

1.85

creates per match

1.42

2.03

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Langwarrin

1.85

Bentleigh Greens

1.42

allows per match

Langwarrin

2.03

Bentleigh Greens

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Langwarrin+0.00on par

Bentleigh Greens+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Langwarrin ↓

Bentleigh Greens →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Langwarrin or draw

60%

Langwarrin or Bentleigh Greens

77%

Draw or Bentleigh Greens

63%

Winning margin

Langwarrin wins by 2+

18%

Bentleigh Greens wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Langwarrin 1+ goals

81%

Langwarrin 2+ goals

49%

Langwarrin 3+ goals

23%

Bentleigh Greens 1+ goals

82%

Bentleigh Greens 2+ goals

51%

Bentleigh Greens 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Langwarrin (draw refunded)

48%

Bentleigh Greens (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Langwarrin at home — creates 1.85, concedes 2.03 · 67 matches

Bentleigh Greens away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.42 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Langwarrin attack 1.85 + Bentleigh Greens defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.64

Bentleigh Greens attack 1.42 + Langwarrin defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Langwarrin scores more

37%

level

23%

Bentleigh Greens scores more

40%

Bentleigh Greens at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Bentleigh Greens will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff