Bentleigh Greens 2–0 Langwarrin: Result & Stats

Bentleigh Greens

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Langwarrin

Unknown 79', 65'

3/14/2025

Victoria NPL 2 · Round 6Kingston Heath Soccer Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Bentleigh Greens52%

×Draw23%

Langwarrin25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bentleigh GreensExpected goals in this matchLangwarrin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.25

Bentleigh Greens

1.88

Langwarrin

1.25

Bentleigh Greens creates 50% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 67 away

1.92

creates per match

1.42

1.08

allows per match

1.84

creates per match

Bentleigh Greens

1.92

Langwarrin

1.42

allows per match

Bentleigh Greens

1.08

Langwarrin

1.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bentleigh Greens+0.00on par

Langwarrin+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bentleigh Greens ↓

Langwarrin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Bentleigh Greens or draw

75%

Bentleigh Greens or Langwarrin

77%

Draw or Langwarrin

48%

Winning margin

Bentleigh Greens wins by 2+

29%

Langwarrin wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Bentleigh Greens 1+ goals

85%

Bentleigh Greens 2+ goals

56%

Bentleigh Greens 3+ goals

29%

Langwarrin 1+ goals

71%

Langwarrin 2+ goals

36%

Langwarrin 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Bentleigh Greens (draw refunded)

67%

Langwarrin (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bentleigh Greens at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.08 · 26 matches

Langwarrin away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.84 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bentleigh Greens attack 1.92 + Langwarrin defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.88

Langwarrin attack 1.42 + Bentleigh Greens defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Bentleigh Greens scores more

52%

level

23%

Langwarrin scores more

25%

Bentleigh Greens at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Bentleigh Greens will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

65'

79'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff