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Langreo vs Internacional de Madrid — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Langreo
Langreo
CANC
00:00
Internacional de Madrid
Internacional de Madrid
3/22/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 30Estadio Nuevo Ganzábal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Langreo48%
×Draw28%
Internacional de Madrid24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Langreo
1.35
Internacional de Madrid
0.88

Langreo creates 53% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 33 away

creates per match

Langreo
1.28
Internacional de Madrid
0.76

allows per match

Langreo
1.00
Internacional de Madrid
1.42

finishing

Langreo+0.00on par
Internacional de Madrid+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Langreo ↓

Internacional de Madrid →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Langreo or draw
76%
Langreo or Internacional de Madrid
72%
Draw or Internacional de Madrid
52%

Winning margin

Langreo wins by 2+
23%
Internacional de Madrid wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Langreo 1+ goals
74%
Langreo 2+ goals
39%
Langreo 3+ goals
15%
Internacional de Madrid 1+ goals
59%
Internacional de Madrid 2+ goals
22%
Internacional de Madrid 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Langreo (draw refunded)
66%
Internacional de Madrid (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Langreo at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.00 · 25 matches

Internacional de Madrid away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.42 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Langreo attack 1.28 + Internacional de Madrid defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.35

Internacional de Madrid attack 0.76 + Langreo defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Langreo scores more
48%
level
28%
Internacional de Madrid scores more
24%

Langreo at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Langreo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Langreo face Internacional de Madrid (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 returns with Langreo hosting Internacional de Madrid. Match starts March 22, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Langreo host Internacional de Madrid at Estadio Nuevo Ganzábal.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.