Internacional de Madrid 3–0 Langreo: Result & Stats

Internacional de Madrid

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Langreo

Rufo 88'

Aythami Perera 57'

Alvar Herrero 53'

11/3/2019

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 11Campo de Fútbol Municipal de Boadilla del Monte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Internacional de Madrid51%

×Draw25%

Langreo24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Internacional de MadridExpected goals in this matchLangreo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.01

Internacional de Madrid

1.61

Langreo

1.01

Internacional de Madrid creates 59% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 27 away

1.82

creates per match

0.78

1.24

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Internacional de Madrid

1.82

Langreo

0.78

allows per match

Internacional de Madrid

1.24

Langreo

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Internacional de Madrid+0.00on par

Langreo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional de Madrid ↓

Langreo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Internacional de Madrid or draw

76%

Internacional de Madrid or Langreo

75%

Draw or Langreo

49%

Winning margin

Internacional de Madrid wins by 2+

27%

Langreo wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Internacional de Madrid 1+ goals

80%

Internacional de Madrid 2+ goals

48%

Internacional de Madrid 3+ goals

22%

Langreo 1+ goals

64%

Langreo 2+ goals

27%

Langreo 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Internacional de Madrid (draw refunded)

68%

Langreo (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional de Madrid at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.24 · 33 matches

Langreo away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.41 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional de Madrid attack 1.82 + Langreo defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.61

Langreo attack 0.78 + Internacional de Madrid defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Internacional de Madrid scores more

51%

level

25%

Langreo scores more

24%

Internacional de Madrid at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Internacional de Madrid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

53'

Alvar Herrero

57'

Aythami Perera

58'

Rufo← Aythami Perera

62'

Asier Gomes← Jordi Marenyà

62'

Carlos Leto← Pedro Montero

71'

N. Arkine← Junior

72'

Abel Bretones← Ander Gayoso

80'

Arthur← Chevi

88'

Rufo

Internacional

Langreo

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Perera

Manager: Marcos Jiménez

58'▲Rufo←▼Aythami Perera

71'▲N. Arkine←▼Junior

80'▲Arthur←▼Chevi

Internacional de Madrid substitutes

RufoArkineArthurNúñezSimónBoselliValero

Manager: Dani Mori

62'▲Asier Gomes←▼Jordi Marenyà

62'▲Carlos Leto←▼Pedro Montero

72'▲Abel Bretones←▼Ander Gayoso

Langreo substitutes

GomesLetoBretonesColoDennisTineoMéndez

Match Recap: Internacional de Madrid vs Langreo

Internacional de Madrid beat Langreo 3-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on November 3, 2019.

Goals: Alvar Herrero (53'), Aythami Perera (57'), Rufo (88').

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Municipal de Boadilla del Monte in Boadilla del Monte.

Internacional de Madrid vs Langreo — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Internacional de Madrid vs Langreo