Langreo II 1–5 L'Entregu: Result & Stats

Langreo II

1 – 5

HT: 0 – 3

L'Entregu

Nelson Cano 64'

Borja Rodríguez 75'

Diego García 60', 18'

J. Ospina 43'

Xabi Semedo 36'

10/3/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 6Estadio Nuevo Ganzábal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Langreo II23%

×Draw25%

L'Entregu52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Langreo IIExpected goals in this matchL'Entregu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

1.65

Langreo II

1.02

L'Entregu

1.65

L'Entregu creates 62% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 112 away

0.89

creates per match

1.26

2.05

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Langreo II

0.89

L'Entregu

1.26

allows per match

Langreo II

2.05

L'Entregu

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Langreo II+0.00on par

L'Entregu+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Langreo II ↓

L'Entregu →

0–07%

0–111%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1–07%

1–112%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Langreo II or draw

48%

Langreo II or L'Entregu

75%

Draw or L'Entregu

77%

Winning margin

Langreo II wins by 2+

L'Entregu wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Langreo II 1+ goals

64%

Langreo II 2+ goals

27%

Langreo II 3+ goals

L'Entregu 1+ goals

81%

L'Entregu 2+ goals

49%

L'Entregu 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Langreo II (draw refunded)

31%

L'Entregu (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Langreo II at home — creates 0.89, concedes 2.05 · 19 matches

L'Entregu away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.16 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Langreo II attack 0.89 + L'Entregu defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.02

L'Entregu attack 1.26 + Langreo II defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 52%?"

Langreo II scores more

23%

level

25%

L'Entregu scores more

52%

L'Entregu at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "L'Entregu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

Diego García

28'

Ricky Vaca← Kike Fanjul

36'

Xabi Semedo

43'

J. Ospina

46'

Álvaro Madrid← Samu Coto

46'

M. Pérez← Cristian Sampedro

46'

V. Poldolin← Álvaro del Río

60'

Diego García

62'

Leyder Trujillo← J. Ospina

64'

Nelson Cano

65'

Edel Antuña← Jorge Varela

75'

Borja Rodríguez

76'

Andrés Agudelo← Imad Fakir

78'

Javier Gonzalez← Fran Martín

78'

Ignacio Fernández← Juan Menéndez

Langreo

L'Entregu

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: Terente

46'▲Álvaro Madrid←▼Samu Coto

46'▲M. Pérez←▼Cristian Sampedro

46'▲V. Poldolin←▼Álvaro del Río

65'▲Edel Antuña←▼Jorge Varela

76'▲Andrés Agudelo←▼Imad Fakir

Langreo II substitutes

MadridPérezPoldolinAntuñaAgudelo

Manager: Adrián González

28'▲Ricky Vaca←▼Kike Fanjul

62'▲Leyder Trujillo←▼J. Ospina

78'▲Javier Gonzalez←▼Fran Martín

78'▲Ignacio Fernández←▼Juan Menéndez

L'Entregu substitutes

VacaTrujilloGonzalezFernández

Match Recap: Langreo II vs L'Entregu

L'Entregu beat Langreo II 5-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on October 3, 2021.

Goals: Diego García (18', 60'), Xabi Semedo (36'), J. Ospina (43'), Nelson Cano (64'), Borja Rodríguez (75').

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Ganzábal in La Felguera, Langreo.

Langreo II vs L'Entregu — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Langreo II vs L'Entregu