L'Entregu 2–1 Langreo II: Result & Stats

L'Entregu

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Langreo II

J. Ospina 40', 3'

Gabriel Ajuchi 66'

2/13/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 25Estadio Nuevo Nalón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

L'Entregu56%

×Draw23%

Langreo II21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

L'EntreguExpected goals in this matchLangreo II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

0.99

L'Entregu

1.77

Langreo II

0.99

L'Entregu creates 79% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 19 away

1.37

creates per match

1.00

0.99

allows per match

2.16

creates per match

L'Entregu

1.37

Langreo II

1.00

allows per match

L'Entregu

0.99

Langreo II

2.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

L'Entregu+0.00on par

Langreo II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

L'Entregu ↓

Langreo II →

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

L'Entregu or draw

79%

L'Entregu or Langreo II

77%

Draw or Langreo II

44%

Winning margin

L'Entregu wins by 2+

31%

Langreo II wins by 2+

Team goals

L'Entregu 1+ goals

83%

L'Entregu 2+ goals

53%

L'Entregu 3+ goals

26%

Langreo II 1+ goals

63%

Langreo II 2+ goals

26%

Langreo II 3+ goals

Draw no bet

L'Entregu (draw refunded)

73%

Langreo II (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

L'Entregu at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.99 · 110 matches

Langreo II away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.16 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

L'Entregu attack 1.37 + Langreo II defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.77

Langreo II attack 1.00 + L'Entregu defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 56%?"

L'Entregu scores more

56%

level

23%

Langreo II scores more

21%

L'Entregu at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "L'Entregu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

J. Ospina

40'

J. Ospina

55'

Javi Gutiérrez← Kike Fanjul

62'

Gabriel Ajuchi← Imad Fakir

66'

Gabriel Ajuchi

75'

Pape← J. Ospina

77'

Rodrigo Alvarez← Jorge Varela

77'

Gabriel Suárez← Alex Cueva

L'Entregu

Langreo

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

Manager: Adrián González

55'▲Javi Gutiérrez←▼Kike Fanjul

75'▲Pape←▼J. Ospina

L'Entregu substitutes

GutiérrezPape

Manager: Andrés Hernández

62'▲Gabriel Ajuchi←▼Imad Fakir

77'▲Rodrigo Alvarez←▼Jorge Varela

77'▲Gabriel Suárez←▼Alex Cueva

Langreo II substitutes

AjuchiAlvarezSuárez

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: L'Entregu 2–1 Langreo II

L'Entregu beat Langreo II 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on February 13, 2022.

Goals: J. Ospina (3', 40'), Gabriel Ajuchi (66').

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Nalón in El Entrego.

L'Entregu vs Langreo II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: L'Entregu 2–1 Langreo II