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Langfang Glory City vs Hunan Billows FC — League Two 2022

Langfang Glory City
Langfang Glory City
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Hunan Billows FC
Hunan Billows FC
10/20/2024League TwoLeague Two · Promotion Group - 10Langfang City Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Langfang Glory City57%
×Draw24%
Hunan Billows FC19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Langfang Glory City
1.70
Hunan Billows FC
0.85

Langfang Glory City creates 100% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 33 away

creates per match

Langfang Glory City
1.49
Hunan Billows FC
0.94

allows per match

Langfang Glory City
0.76
Hunan Billows FC
1.91

finishing

Langfang Glory City+0.00on par
Hunan Billows FC+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Langfang Glory City ↓

Hunan Billows FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Langfang Glory City or draw
81%
Langfang Glory City or Hunan Billows FC
76%
Draw or Hunan Billows FC
43%

Winning margin

Langfang Glory City wins by 2+
32%
Hunan Billows FC wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Langfang Glory City 1+ goals
82%
Langfang Glory City 2+ goals
51%
Langfang Glory City 3+ goals
24%
Hunan Billows FC 1+ goals
57%
Hunan Billows FC 2+ goals
21%
Hunan Billows FC 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Langfang Glory City (draw refunded)
76%
Hunan Billows FC (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Langfang Glory City at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.76 · 37 matches

Hunan Billows FC away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.91 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Langfang Glory City attack 1.49 + Hunan Billows FC defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.70

Hunan Billows FC attack 0.94 + Langfang Glory City defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Langfang Glory City scores more
57%
level
24%
Hunan Billows FC scores more
19%

Langfang Glory City at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Langfang Glory City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Langfang Glory City vs Hunan Billows FC

Langfang Glory City beat Hunan Billows FC 3-0 in League Two on October 20, 2024.

The match was played at Langfang City Sports Center in Langfang.