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Hunan Billows FC vs Langfang Glory City — League Two 2022

Hunan Billows FC
Hunan Billows FC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Langfang Glory City
Langfang Glory City
9/15/2024League TwoLeague Two · Promotion Group - 5Loudi Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Hunan Billows FC34%
×Draw26%
Langfang Glory City40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hunan Billows FC
1.27
Langfang Glory City
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 37 away

creates per match

Hunan Billows FC
1.22
Langfang Glory City
0.84

allows per match

Hunan Billows FC
1.91
Langfang Glory City
1.32

finishing

Hunan Billows FC+0.00on par
Langfang Glory City+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hunan Billows FC ↓

Langfang Glory City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Hunan Billows FC or draw
60%
Hunan Billows FC or Langfang Glory City
74%
Draw or Langfang Glory City
66%

Winning margin

Hunan Billows FC wins by 2+
15%
Langfang Glory City wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Hunan Billows FC 1+ goals
72%
Hunan Billows FC 2+ goals
36%
Hunan Billows FC 3+ goals
14%
Langfang Glory City 1+ goals
75%
Langfang Glory City 2+ goals
40%
Langfang Glory City 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Hunan Billows FC (draw refunded)
47%
Langfang Glory City (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hunan Billows FC at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.91 · 32 matches

Langfang Glory City away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.32 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hunan Billows FC attack 1.22 + Langfang Glory City defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.27

Langfang Glory City attack 0.84 + Hunan Billows FC defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Hunan Billows FC scores more
34%
level
26%
Langfang Glory City scores more
40%

Langfang Glory City at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Langfang Glory City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Hunan Billows FC 1–1 Langfang Glory City

Hunan Billows FC and Langfang Glory City drew 1-1 in League Two on September 15, 2024.

The match was played at Loudi Sports Center in Loudi.