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Langenegg vs FC Liefering — Regionalliga - West 2018

Langenegg
Langenegg
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
FC Liefering
FC Liefering
5/11/2019Regionalliga - WestRegionalliga - West · Round 26Sportplatz Fc Langenegg (Langenegg)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Langenegg21%
×Draw19%
FC Liefering61%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Langenegg
1.43
FC Liefering
2.51

FC Liefering creates 76% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 16 away

creates per match

Langenegg
1.42
FC Liefering
2.81

allows per match

Langenegg
2.21
FC Liefering
1.44

finishing

Langenegg+0.00on par
FC Liefering+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Langenegg ↓

FC Liefering →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Langenegg or draw
39%
Langenegg or FC Liefering
81%
Draw or FC Liefering
79%

Winning margin

Langenegg wins by 2+
9%
FC Liefering wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

Langenegg 1+ goals
76%
Langenegg 2+ goals
42%
Langenegg 3+ goals
17%
FC Liefering 1+ goals
92%
FC Liefering 2+ goals
71%
FC Liefering 3+ goals
45%

Draw no bet

Langenegg (draw refunded)
26%
FC Liefering (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Langenegg at home — creates 1.42, concedes 2.21 · 24 matches

FC Liefering away — creates 2.81, concedes 1.44 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Langenegg attack 1.42 + FC Liefering defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.43

FC Liefering attack 2.81 + Langenegg defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Langenegg scores more
21%
level
19%
FC Liefering scores more
61%

FC Liefering at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "FC Liefering will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - West: Langenegg 3–2 FC Liefering

Langenegg beat FC Liefering 3-2 in Regionalliga - West on May 11, 2019.

The match was played at Sportplatz Fc Langenegg (Langenegg).