FC Liefering 10–0 Langenegg: Result & Stats

FC Liefering

FT

10 – 0

HT: 7 – 0

Langenegg

9/29/2018

Regionalliga - West · Round 11Sportzentrum Anif (Anif)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

FC Liefering77%

×Draw13%

Langenegg10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC LieferingExpected goals in this matchLangenegg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.33

1.20

FC Liefering

3.33

Langenegg

1.20

FC Liefering creates 178% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 24 away

3.63

creates per match

1.46

0.94

allows per match

3.04

creates per match

FC Liefering

3.63

Langenegg

1.46

allows per match

FC Liefering

0.94

Langenegg

3.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Liefering+0.00on par

Langenegg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Liefering ↓

Langenegg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–15%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–06%

4–17%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

82%18%3.5

64%36%4.5

44%56%

Double chance

FC Liefering or draw

90%

FC Liefering or Langenegg

87%

Draw or Langenegg

23%

Winning margin

FC Liefering wins by 2+

58%

Langenegg wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

FC Liefering 1+ goals

96%

FC Liefering 2+ goals

84%

FC Liefering 3+ goals

63%

Langenegg 1+ goals

70%

Langenegg 2+ goals

34%

Langenegg 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

FC Liefering (draw refunded)

88%

Langenegg (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Liefering at home — creates 3.63, concedes 0.94 · 16 matches

Langenegg away — creates 1.46, concedes 3.04 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Liefering attack 3.63 + Langenegg defence 3.04 → ÷2 → 3.33

Langenegg attack 1.46 + FC Liefering defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

FC Liefering scores more

77%

level

13%

Langenegg scores more

10%

FC Liefering at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "FC Liefering will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff