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Langenegg vs Austria Lustenau II — Regionalliga - West 2018

Langenegg
Langenegg
CANC
22:00
Austria Lustenau II
Austria Lustenau II
5/15/2020Regionalliga - WestRegionalliga - West · Vorarlberg - Eliteliga - 9Sportplatz Fc Langenegg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Langenegg44%
×Draw22%
Austria Lustenau II34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Langenegg
1.91
Austria Lustenau II
1.65

Langenegg creates 16% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 25 away

creates per match

Langenegg
1.42
Austria Lustenau II
1.08

allows per match

Langenegg
2.21
Austria Lustenau II
2.40

finishing

Langenegg+0.00on par
Austria Lustenau II+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Langenegg ↓

Austria Lustenau II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Langenegg or draw
66%
Langenegg or Austria Lustenau II
78%
Draw or Austria Lustenau II
56%

Winning margin

Langenegg wins by 2+
24%
Austria Lustenau II wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Langenegg 1+ goals
85%
Langenegg 2+ goals
57%
Langenegg 3+ goals
30%
Austria Lustenau II 1+ goals
81%
Austria Lustenau II 2+ goals
49%
Austria Lustenau II 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Langenegg (draw refunded)
57%
Austria Lustenau II (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Langenegg at home — creates 1.42, concedes 2.21 · 24 matches

Austria Lustenau II away — creates 1.08, concedes 2.40 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Langenegg attack 1.42 + Austria Lustenau II defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.91

Austria Lustenau II attack 1.08 + Langenegg defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Langenegg scores more
44%
level
22%
Austria Lustenau II scores more
34%

Langenegg at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Langenegg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Langenegg host Austria Lustenau II

May 15, 2020: Langenegg take on Austria Lustenau II in Regionalliga - West. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Langenegg host Austria Lustenau II at Sportplatz Fc Langenegg.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.