Austria Lustenau II vs Langenegg

Austria Lustenau II

CANC

00:00

Langenegg

4/4/2020

Regionalliga - West · Vorarlberg - Eliteliga - 3Planet Pure Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Austria Lustenau II43%

×Draw20%

Langenegg37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Austria Lustenau IIExpected goals in this matchLangenegg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.28

2.09

Austria Lustenau II

2.28

Langenegg

2.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 25 home / 24 away

1.52

creates per match

1.46

2.72

allows per match

3.04

creates per match

Austria Lustenau II

1.52

Langenegg

1.46

allows per match

Austria Lustenau II

2.72

Langenegg

3.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Austria Lustenau II+0.00on par

Langenegg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes79
No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austria Lustenau II ↓

Langenegg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

63%37%4.5

43%57%

Double chance

Austria Lustenau II or draw

63%

Austria Lustenau II or Langenegg

80%

Draw or Langenegg

57%

Winning margin

Austria Lustenau II wins by 2+

25%

Langenegg wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Austria Lustenau II 1+ goals

90%

Austria Lustenau II 2+ goals

66%

Austria Lustenau II 3+ goals

39%

Langenegg 1+ goals

88%

Langenegg 2+ goals

62%

Langenegg 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Austria Lustenau II (draw refunded)

54%

Langenegg (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

72%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Austria Lustenau II at home — creates 1.52, concedes 2.72 · 25 matches

Langenegg away — creates 1.46, concedes 3.04 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Austria Lustenau II attack 1.52 + Langenegg defence 3.04 → ÷2 → 2.28

Langenegg attack 1.46 + Austria Lustenau II defence 2.72 → ÷2 → 2.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Austria Lustenau II scores more

43%

level

20%

Langenegg scores more

37%

Austria Lustenau II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Austria Lustenau II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff