Landskrona BoIS 0–3 Ostersunds FK: Result & Stats

Landskrona BoIS

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Ostersunds FK

2/21/2021

Svenska Cupen · Group Stage - 1Landskrona IP F-plan konstgräs

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Landskrona BoIS28%

×Draw24%

Ostersunds FK48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Landskrona BoISExpected goals in this matchOstersunds FK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.66

Landskrona BoIS

1.22

Ostersunds FK

1.66

Ostersunds FK creates 36% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 16 away

1.38

creates per match

1.31

2.00

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Landskrona BoIS

1.38

Ostersunds FK

1.31

allows per match

Landskrona BoIS

2.00

Ostersunds FK

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Landskrona BoIS+0.00on par

Ostersunds FK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Landskrona BoIS ↓

Ostersunds FK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Landskrona BoIS or draw

52%

Landskrona BoIS or Ostersunds FK

76%

Draw or Ostersunds FK

72%

Winning margin

Landskrona BoIS wins by 2+

12%

Ostersunds FK wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Landskrona BoIS 1+ goals

70%

Landskrona BoIS 2+ goals

34%

Landskrona BoIS 3+ goals

12%

Ostersunds FK 1+ goals

81%

Ostersunds FK 2+ goals

49%

Ostersunds FK 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Landskrona BoIS (draw refunded)

37%

Ostersunds FK (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Landskrona BoIS at home — creates 1.38, concedes 2.00 · 8 matches

Ostersunds FK away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.06 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Landskrona BoIS attack 1.38 + Ostersunds FK defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.22

Ostersunds FK attack 1.31 + Landskrona BoIS defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Landskrona BoIS scores more

28%

level

24%

Ostersunds FK scores more

48%

Ostersunds FK at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Ostersunds FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff