Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Landskrona BoIS vs Dalkurd FF — Superettan 2018

Landskrona BoIS
Landskrona BoIS
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Dalkurd FF
Dalkurd FF
10/1/2022SuperettanSuperettan · Round 25Landskrona Idrottsplats

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Landskrona BoIS49%
×Draw25%
Dalkurd FF26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Landskrona BoIS
1.61
Dalkurd FF
1.09

Landskrona BoIS creates 48% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 49 away

creates per match

Landskrona BoIS
1.55
Dalkurd FF
0.98

allows per match

Landskrona BoIS
1.21
Dalkurd FF
1.67

finishing

Landskrona BoIS+0.00on par
Dalkurd FF+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Landskrona BoIS ↓

Dalkurd FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Landskrona BoIS or draw
74%
Landskrona BoIS or Dalkurd FF
75%
Draw or Dalkurd FF
51%

Winning margin

Landskrona BoIS wins by 2+
26%
Dalkurd FF wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Landskrona BoIS 1+ goals
80%
Landskrona BoIS 2+ goals
48%
Landskrona BoIS 3+ goals
22%
Dalkurd FF 1+ goals
66%
Dalkurd FF 2+ goals
30%
Dalkurd FF 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Landskrona BoIS (draw refunded)
66%
Dalkurd FF (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Landskrona BoIS at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.21 · 98 matches

Dalkurd FF away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.67 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Landskrona BoIS attack 1.55 + Dalkurd FF defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.61

Dalkurd FF attack 0.98 + Landskrona BoIS defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Landskrona BoIS scores more
49%
level
25%
Dalkurd FF scores more
26%

Landskrona BoIS at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Landskrona BoIS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superettan: Landskrona BoIS 3–1 Dalkurd FF

Landskrona BoIS beat Dalkurd FF 3-1 in Superettan on October 1, 2022.

The match was played at Landskrona Idrottsplats in Landskrona.