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Dalkurd FF vs Landskrona BoIS — Superettan 2018

Dalkurd FF
Dalkurd FF
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Landskrona BoIS
Landskrona BoIS
12/13/2020SuperettanSuperettan · Relegation RoundStudenternas IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Dalkurd FF44%
×Draw25%
Landskrona BoIS31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dalkurd FF
1.58
Landskrona BoIS
1.30

Dalkurd FF creates 22% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 98 away

creates per match

Dalkurd FF
1.52
Landskrona BoIS
1.16

allows per match

Dalkurd FF
1.44
Landskrona BoIS
1.64

finishing

Dalkurd FF+0.00on par
Landskrona BoIS+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dalkurd FF ↓

Landskrona BoIS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Dalkurd FF or draw
69%
Dalkurd FF or Landskrona BoIS
75%
Draw or Landskrona BoIS
56%

Winning margin

Dalkurd FF wins by 2+
22%
Landskrona BoIS wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Dalkurd FF 1+ goals
79%
Dalkurd FF 2+ goals
47%
Dalkurd FF 3+ goals
21%
Landskrona BoIS 1+ goals
73%
Landskrona BoIS 2+ goals
37%
Landskrona BoIS 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Dalkurd FF (draw refunded)
58%
Landskrona BoIS (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dalkurd FF at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.44 · 48 matches

Landskrona BoIS away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.64 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dalkurd FF attack 1.52 + Landskrona BoIS defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.58

Landskrona BoIS attack 1.16 + Dalkurd FF defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Dalkurd FF scores more
44%
level
25%
Landskrona BoIS scores more
31%

Dalkurd FF at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Dalkurd FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superettan: Dalkurd FF 1–1 Landskrona BoIS

Dalkurd FF and Landskrona BoIS drew 1-1 in Superettan on December 13, 2020.

The match was played at Studenternas IP in Uppsala.