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Lamphun Warrior vs Lampang FC — Thai League 2 2018

Lamphun Warrior
Lamphun Warrior
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
Lampang FC
Lampang FC
11/7/2021Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 12Mae Guang Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Lamphun Warrior56%
×Draw22%
Lampang FC22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lamphun Warrior
1.92
Lampang FC
1.10

Lamphun Warrior creates 75% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 102 away

creates per match

Lamphun Warrior
2.29
Lampang FC
1.39

allows per match

Lamphun Warrior
0.82
Lampang FC
1.54

finishing

Lamphun Warrior+0.00on par
Lampang FC+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lamphun Warrior ↓

Lampang FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Lamphun Warrior or draw
78%
Lamphun Warrior or Lampang FC
78%
Draw or Lampang FC
44%

Winning margin

Lamphun Warrior wins by 2+
33%
Lampang FC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Lamphun Warrior 1+ goals
85%
Lamphun Warrior 2+ goals
57%
Lamphun Warrior 3+ goals
30%
Lampang FC 1+ goals
67%
Lampang FC 2+ goals
30%
Lampang FC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Lamphun Warrior (draw refunded)
72%
Lampang FC (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lamphun Warrior at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

Lampang FC away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.54 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lamphun Warrior attack 2.29 + Lampang FC defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.92

Lampang FC attack 1.39 + Lamphun Warrior defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Lamphun Warrior scores more
56%
level
22%
Lampang FC scores more
22%

Lamphun Warrior at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Lamphun Warrior will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lamphun Warrior vs Lampang FC

Lamphun Warrior and Lampang FC drew 3-3 in Thai League 2 on November 7, 2021.

The match was played at Mae Guang Stadium in Lamphun.