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Lampang FC vs Lamphun Warrior — Thai League 2 2018

Lampang FC
Lampang FC
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Lamphun Warrior
Lamphun Warrior
3/20/2022Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 28Lampang Provincial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Lampang FC34%
×Draw27%
Lamphun Warrior39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lampang FC
1.21
Lamphun Warrior
1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 101 home / 17 away

creates per match

Lampang FC
1.48
Lamphun Warrior
1.59

allows per match

Lampang FC
1.01
Lamphun Warrior
0.94

finishing

Lampang FC+0.00on par
Lamphun Warrior+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lampang FC ↓

Lamphun Warrior →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Lampang FC or draw
61%
Lampang FC or Lamphun Warrior
73%
Draw or Lamphun Warrior
66%

Winning margin

Lampang FC wins by 2+
15%
Lamphun Warrior wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Lampang FC 1+ goals
70%
Lampang FC 2+ goals
34%
Lampang FC 3+ goals
12%
Lamphun Warrior 1+ goals
73%
Lamphun Warrior 2+ goals
37%
Lamphun Warrior 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Lampang FC (draw refunded)
47%
Lamphun Warrior (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lampang FC at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.01 · 101 matches

Lamphun Warrior away — creates 1.59, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lampang FC attack 1.48 + Lamphun Warrior defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.21

Lamphun Warrior attack 1.59 + Lampang FC defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Lampang FC scores more
34%
level
27%
Lamphun Warrior scores more
39%

Lamphun Warrior at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Lamphun Warrior will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Lampang FC 0–1 Lamphun Warrior

Lamphun Warrior beat Lampang FC 1-0 in Thai League 2 on March 20, 2022.

The match was played at Lampang Provincial Stadium in Lampang.