Lamphun Warrior 1–0 Kasetsart FC: Result & Stats

Lamphun Warrior

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Kasetsart FC

9/5/2021

Thai League 2 · Round 1Mae Guang Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Lamphun Warrior65%

×Draw20%

Kasetsart FC14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lamphun WarriorExpected goals in this matchKasetsart FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.07

0.85

Lamphun Warrior

2.07

Kasetsart FC

0.85

Lamphun Warrior creates 144% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 132 away

2.29

creates per match

0.88

0.82

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Lamphun Warrior

2.29

Kasetsart FC

0.88

allows per match

Lamphun Warrior

0.82

Kasetsart FC

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lamphun Warrior+0.00on par

Kasetsart FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lamphun Warrior ↓

Kasetsart FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Lamphun Warrior or draw

86%

Lamphun Warrior or Kasetsart FC

80%

Draw or Kasetsart FC

35%

Winning margin

Lamphun Warrior wins by 2+

41%

Kasetsart FC wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Lamphun Warrior 1+ goals

87%

Lamphun Warrior 2+ goals

61%

Lamphun Warrior 3+ goals

34%

Kasetsart FC 1+ goals

57%

Kasetsart FC 2+ goals

21%

Kasetsart FC 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Lamphun Warrior (draw refunded)

82%

Kasetsart FC (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lamphun Warrior at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

Kasetsart FC away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.85 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lamphun Warrior attack 2.29 + Kasetsart FC defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 2.07

Kasetsart FC attack 0.88 + Lamphun Warrior defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Lamphun Warrior scores more

65%

level

20%

Kasetsart FC scores more

14%

Lamphun Warrior at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Lamphun Warrior will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff