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Kasetsart FC vs Lamphun Warrior — Thai League 2 2018

Kasetsart FC
Kasetsart FC
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Lamphun Warrior
Lamphun Warrior
4/30/2022Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 34Intree Chantarasatit Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Kasetsart FC30%
×Draw27%
Lamphun Warrior43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kasetsart FC
1.13
Lamphun Warrior
1.40

Lamphun Warrior creates 24% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 17 away

creates per match

Kasetsart FC
1.32
Lamphun Warrior
1.59

allows per match

Kasetsart FC
1.21
Lamphun Warrior
0.94

finishing

Kasetsart FC+0.00on par
Lamphun Warrior+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kasetsart FC ↓

Lamphun Warrior →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Kasetsart FC or draw
57%
Kasetsart FC or Lamphun Warrior
73%
Draw or Lamphun Warrior
70%

Winning margin

Kasetsart FC wins by 2+
12%
Lamphun Warrior wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Kasetsart FC 1+ goals
68%
Kasetsart FC 2+ goals
31%
Kasetsart FC 3+ goals
11%
Lamphun Warrior 1+ goals
75%
Lamphun Warrior 2+ goals
41%
Lamphun Warrior 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Kasetsart FC (draw refunded)
41%
Lamphun Warrior (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kasetsart FC at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.21 · 133 matches

Lamphun Warrior away — creates 1.59, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kasetsart FC attack 1.32 + Lamphun Warrior defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.13

Lamphun Warrior attack 1.59 + Kasetsart FC defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Kasetsart FC scores more
30%
level
27%
Lamphun Warrior scores more
43%

Lamphun Warrior at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Lamphun Warrior will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kasetsart FC vs Lamphun Warrior

Lamphun Warrior beat Kasetsart FC 3-0 in Thai League 2 on April 30, 2022.

The match was played at Intree Chantarasatit Stadium in Bangkok.