Lamphun Warrior 0–0 Chiangrai United

Lamphun Warrior

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Chiangrai United

5/3/2026

League #296 · Round 29700th Anniversary Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Lamphun Warrior40%

×Draw26%

Chiangrai United34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lamphun WarriorExpected goals in this matchChiangrai United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.23

Lamphun Warrior

1.36

Chiangrai United

1.23

Lamphun Warrior creates 11% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 20 away

1.48

creates per match

1.15

1.31

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Lamphun Warrior

1.48

Chiangrai United

1.15

allows per match

Lamphun Warrior

1.31

Chiangrai United

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lamphun Warrior+0.00on par

Chiangrai United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lamphun Warrior ↓

Chiangrai United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Lamphun Warrior or draw

66%

Lamphun Warrior or Chiangrai United

74%

Draw or Chiangrai United

60%

Winning margin

Lamphun Warrior wins by 2+

18%

Chiangrai United wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Lamphun Warrior 1+ goals

74%

Lamphun Warrior 2+ goals

39%

Lamphun Warrior 3+ goals

16%

Chiangrai United 1+ goals

71%

Chiangrai United 2+ goals

35%

Chiangrai United 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Lamphun Warrior (draw refunded)

54%

Chiangrai United (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lamphun Warrior at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.31 · 42 matches

Chiangrai United away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.25 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lamphun Warrior attack 1.48 + Chiangrai United defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.36

Chiangrai United attack 1.15 + Lamphun Warrior defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Lamphun Warrior scores more

40%

level

26%

Chiangrai United scores more

34%

Lamphun Warrior at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Lamphun Warrior will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

50'

S. Yaemsaen

55'

O. Kekkonen

55'

Willen Mota← P. Mlapa

63'

M. Promsawat← J. Emaviwe

63'

G. Verzura← S. Yaemsaen

70'

C. Iury

70'

B. Tapla← O. Kekkonen

70'

W. Moonwong← S. Singmui

73'

I. Enomoto

76'

S. Thinjom← I. Enomoto

76'

N. Chaiman← S. Suvannaseat

90'

T. Khotrsupho← A. Yodsangwal

90'

P. Phanitchakun← T. Inprakhon

Lamphun

Chiangrai

1

Worawong

24

▼

Yaemsaen

28

Helio

5

Ballini

92

▼

Inprakhon

6

▼

Suvannase

98

Henrique

9

▼

Enomoto

10

Dudu

11

Iury

90

▼

20

7

23

30

▼

Singmui

27

Noiwilai

17

Ralph

55

▼

Kekkonen

8

Pumwisat

11

▼

Yodsangwa

18

▼

Mlapa

14

Osman

Manager: Dennis Amato

55'▲Willen Mota←▼P. Mlapa

70'▲B. Tapla←▼O. Kekkonen

70'▲W. Moonwong←▼S. Singmui

90'▲T. Khotrsupho←▼A. Yodsangwal

Lamphun Warrior substitutes

26Suklom22Cissokho29Mota9Daniels21Chuchin6Lated32Tapla2Moonwong19Khotrsupho4Schwabe25Suriyachai15Navanich

Manager: Sirisak Yodyardthai

63'▲M. Promsawat←▼J. Emaviwe

63'▲G. Verzura←▼S. Yaemsaen

76'▲S. Thinjom←▼I. Enomoto

76'▲N. Chaiman←▼S. Suvannaseat

90'▲P. Phanitchakun←▼T. Inprakhon

Chiangrai United substitutes

34Wongruankhum4Phanitchakun32Promsawat3Srisai7Thinjom17Verzura20Jaihan77Chaiman50Singthong37Phoptham