Chiangrai United 1–1 Lamphun Warrior

Chiangrai United

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Lamphun Warrior

Helio 45'

Willen Mota 68'

12/13/2025

League #296 · Round 15Leo Chiangrai Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Chiangrai United50%

×Draw25%

Lamphun Warrior24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chiangrai UnitedExpected goals in this matchLamphun Warrior

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.00

Chiangrai United

1.56

Lamphun Warrior

1.00

Chiangrai United creates 56% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 42 away

1.50

creates per match

1.00

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Chiangrai United

1.50

Lamphun Warrior

1.00

allows per match

Chiangrai United

1.00

Lamphun Warrior

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chiangrai United+0.00on par

Lamphun Warrior+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chiangrai United ↓

Lamphun Warrior →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Chiangrai United or draw

76%

Chiangrai United or Lamphun Warrior

75%

Draw or Lamphun Warrior

50%

Winning margin

Chiangrai United wins by 2+

26%

Lamphun Warrior wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Chiangrai United 1+ goals

79%

Chiangrai United 2+ goals

46%

Chiangrai United 3+ goals

21%

Lamphun Warrior 1+ goals

63%

Lamphun Warrior 2+ goals

26%

Lamphun Warrior 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Chiangrai United (draw refunded)

67%

Lamphun Warrior (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chiangrai United at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.00 · 18 matches

Lamphun Warrior away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.62 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chiangrai United attack 1.50 + Lamphun Warrior defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.56

Lamphun Warrior attack 1.00 + Chiangrai United defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Chiangrai United scores more

50%

level

25%

Lamphun Warrior scores more

24%

Chiangrai United at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Chiangrai United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

N. Muangngam

Lamphun Warrior · G

8.9

Match Events

11'

Nuttee NoiwilaiCard reviewed

45+1'

Ralph

45'

Helio↳ C. Iury

53'

Witthaya Moonwong

55'

P. Mlapa← Ralph

59'

Oskari Kekkonen

68'

Willen Mota↳ P. Mlapa

69'

P. Phanitchakun← T. Jaihan

69'

M. Promsawat← S. Suvannaseat

76'

Gabriel HenriqueGoal cancelled

79'

S. Suriyachai← A. Pumwisat

79'

T. Chuchin← N. Noiwilai

86'

S. Lee← Gabriel Henrique

86'

T. Pimoytha← S. Thinjom

90+7'

Aly Cissokho

90+4'

N. Chaiman← Helio

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ChiangraiLamphun

Overview

51%Possession49%

15Total Shots11

8Corners6

12Fouls16

Shots

15Total Shots11

9On Target3

3Off Target4

3Blocked4

10Inside Box7

5Outside Box4

Passing

51%Possession49%

263Total Passes264

189Accurate Passes194

72%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

2Saves8

Discipline

12Fouls16

0Yellow Cards4

2Offsides1