Lamphun Warrior 2–2 BG Pathum United

Lamphun Warrior

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

BG Pathum United

Jefferson 81'

T. Lated 13'

Ilhan Fandi 63'

T. Dangda 35' (pen)

11/4/2024

League #296 · Round 12700th Anniversary Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Lamphun Warrior41%

×Draw27%

BG Pathum United32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lamphun WarriorExpected goals in this matchBG Pathum United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.14

Lamphun Warrior

1.34

BG Pathum United

1.14

Lamphun Warrior creates 18% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 24 away

1.48

creates per match

0.96

1.31

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Lamphun Warrior

1.48

BG Pathum United

0.96

allows per match

Lamphun Warrior

1.31

BG Pathum United

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lamphun Warrior+0.00on par

BG Pathum United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lamphun Warrior ↓

BG Pathum United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Lamphun Warrior or draw

68%

Lamphun Warrior or BG Pathum United

73%

Draw or BG Pathum United

59%

Winning margin

Lamphun Warrior wins by 2+

19%

BG Pathum United wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Lamphun Warrior 1+ goals

74%

Lamphun Warrior 2+ goals

39%

Lamphun Warrior 3+ goals

15%

BG Pathum United 1+ goals

68%

BG Pathum United 2+ goals

32%

BG Pathum United 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Lamphun Warrior (draw refunded)

57%

BG Pathum United (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lamphun Warrior at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.31 · 42 matches

BG Pathum United away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.21 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lamphun Warrior attack 1.48 + BG Pathum United defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.34

BG Pathum United attack 0.96 + Lamphun Warrior defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Lamphun Warrior scores more

41%

level

27%

BG Pathum United scores more

32%

Lamphun Warrior at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Lamphun Warrior will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

91

Ilhan Fandi

BG Pathum United · F

7.6

Match Events

13'

T. Lated↳ Mohammed Osman

21'

W. Clowuttiwat← T. Lated

29'

Korraphat Narichan

31'

Ilhan Fandi← M. Lorenzen

33'

Kritsada KamanPenalty confirmed

35'

T. DangdaPenalty

40'

Kike Linares

55'

Jefferson← Ricardo Lopes

63'

Ilhan Fandi↳ J. Wonggorn

75'

T. Khotrsupho← B. Tapla

75'

Júnior Batista← A. Yodsangwal

76'

T. Inprakhon← W. Jamnongwat

76'

C. Pombubpha← T. Dangda

81'

Jefferson

90+1'

F. Álvarez← M. Ballini

90+1'

S. Tiatrakul← Ilhan Fandi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LamphunBG

Overview

28%Possession72%

8Total Shots13

2Corners2

11Fouls10

Shots

8Total Shots13

3On Target4

3Off Target7

2Blocked2

6Inside Box9

2Outside Box4

Passing

28%Possession72%

211Total Passes567

147Accurate Passes503

70%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls10

2Yellow Cards0

1Offsides2