BG Pathum United vs Lamphun Warrior — League #296 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 21+ matches
BG Pathum United56%
Lamphun Warrior21%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
BG Pathum United creates 79% more chances
Season form · 21 home / 42 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over53
- Under47
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes53
- No47
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
BG Pathum United ↓
Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
BG Pathum United at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.00 · 21 matches
Lamphun Warrior away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.62 · 42 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
BG Pathum United attack 1.95 + Lamphun Warrior defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.79
Lamphun Warrior attack 1.00 + BG Pathum United defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 56%?"
BG Pathum United at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 56% does not mean "BG Pathum United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Lamphun Warrior substitutes
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
RatchaburiLamphun WarriorBG Pathum United
Buriram United
Rayong FC
Prachuap
Chiangrai United
Chonburi FC
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Uthai Thani
Bangkok United
Sukhothai FC
Muangthong United
Port FC
Ayutthaya FC
KanchanaburiIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
BG Pathum United host Lamphun Warrior on Saturday, 23 August 2025 at 12:30. The match is part of the League #296 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: BG Pathum United vs Lamphun Warrior
BG Pathum United beat Lamphun Warrior 2-1 in League #296 on August 23, 2025.
Goals: M. Osman (25'), Matheus Fornazari (77', 87').
The match was played at BG Stadium in Pathum Thani.