Lampang FC 1–1 Nakhon Pathom: Result & Stats

Lampang FC

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Nakhon Pathom

Andrey Coutinho 43'

K. Nah 68'

1/8/2022

Thai League 2 · Round 18Lampang Provincial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Lampang FC42%

×Draw28%

Nakhon Pathom30%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lampang FCExpected goals in this matchNakhon Pathom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.02

Lampang FC

1.26

Nakhon Pathom

1.02

Lampang FC creates 24% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 70 away

1.51

creates per match

1.04

1.01

allows per match

1.01

creates per match

Lampang FC

1.51

Nakhon Pathom

1.04

allows per match

Lampang FC

1.01

Nakhon Pathom

1.01

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lampang FC+0.00on par

Nakhon Pathom+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lampang FC ↓

Nakhon Pathom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Lampang FC or draw

70%

Lampang FC or Nakhon Pathom

72%

Draw or Nakhon Pathom

58%

Winning margin

Lampang FC wins by 2+

19%

Nakhon Pathom wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Lampang FC 1+ goals

72%

Lampang FC 2+ goals

36%

Lampang FC 3+ goals

13%

Nakhon Pathom 1+ goals

64%

Nakhon Pathom 2+ goals

27%

Nakhon Pathom 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Lampang FC (draw refunded)

58%

Nakhon Pathom (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lampang FC at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.01 · 88 matches

Nakhon Pathom away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.01 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lampang FC attack 1.51 + Nakhon Pathom defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.26

Nakhon Pathom attack 1.04 + Lampang FC defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Lampang FC scores more

42%

level

28%

Nakhon Pathom scores more

30%

Lampang FC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Lampang FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

43'

Andrey Coutinho

46'

Jakkrawut Songma← P. Janntasree

46'

A. Sangrum← S. Buaneam

46'

K. Nah← S. Chaolaokhwan

46'

Alberto Moreira← S. Foofung

65'

A. Waenlor← W. Tanee

68'

K. Nah

73'

Y. Bamba← W. Srivichai

78'

N. Noiwilai← P. Prachayamongkol

80'

T. Buransri← K. Kasemkulwilai

Lampang

Nakhon

62

Jochaworu

7

▼

22

23

30

34

▼

Prachayam

66

▼

8

24

63

14

▼

Foofung

83

Yen-Arrom

6

Jaroentha

3

▼

14

23

17

18

⚽

Coutinho

20

▼

Tanee

30

▼

Srivichai

7

▼

Kasemkulw

10

Thirawats

Manager: S. Yothee

46'▲Jakkrawut Songma←▼P. Janntasree

65'▲A. Waenlor←▼W. Tanee

73'▲Y. Bamba←▼W. Srivichai

80'▲T. Buransri←▼K. Kasemkulwilai

Lampang FC substitutes

19Songma5Waenlor32Bamba37Buransri4Pooduangdart11Buasri22Palachom24Moosawat54Puakpralab

Manager: T. Sukkoki

46'▲A. Sangrum←▼S. Buaneam

46'▲K. Nah←▼S. Chaolaokhwan

46'▲Alberto Moreira←▼S. Foofung

78'▲N. Noiwilai←▼P. Prachayamongkol

Nakhon Pathom substitutes

33Sangrum9Nah77Moreira28Noiwilai5Lertpalapong19Boonma38Nisaitong11Kongmathilath17Khamseang

Thai League 2: Lampang FC 1–1 Nakhon Pathom

Lampang FC and Nakhon Pathom drew 1-1 in Thai League 2 on January 8, 2022.

Goals: Andrey Coutinho (43'), K. Nah (68').

The match was played at Lampang Provincial Stadium in Lampang.

Lampang FC vs Nakhon Pathom — Thai League 2 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Thai League 2: Lampang FC 1–1 Nakhon Pathom