Lampang FC 0–3 Nakhon Pathom: Result & Stats

Lampang FC

FT

0 – 3

Nakhon Pathom

Ferreira Dos Santos 90'

K. Nontharath 87'

J. Phasukihan 47'

10/17/2020

Thai League 2 · Round 10Lampang Provincial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Lampang FC43%

×Draw28%

Nakhon Pathom29%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lampang FCExpected goals in this matchNakhon Pathom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.02

Lampang FC

1.29

Nakhon Pathom

1.02

Lampang FC creates 26% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 72 away

1.53

creates per match

1.03

1.00

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Lampang FC

1.53

Nakhon Pathom

1.03

allows per match

Lampang FC

1.00

Nakhon Pathom

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lampang FC+0.00on par

Nakhon Pathom+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lampang FC ↓

Nakhon Pathom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Lampang FC or draw

71%

Lampang FC or Nakhon Pathom

72%

Draw or Nakhon Pathom

57%

Winning margin

Lampang FC wins by 2+

19%

Nakhon Pathom wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Lampang FC 1+ goals

72%

Lampang FC 2+ goals

37%

Lampang FC 3+ goals

14%

Nakhon Pathom 1+ goals

64%

Nakhon Pathom 2+ goals

27%

Nakhon Pathom 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Lampang FC (draw refunded)

59%

Nakhon Pathom (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lampang FC at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.00 · 90 matches

Nakhon Pathom away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.06 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lampang FC attack 1.53 + Nakhon Pathom defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.29

Nakhon Pathom attack 1.03 + Lampang FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Lampang FC scores more

43%

level

28%

Nakhon Pathom scores more

29%

Lampang FC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Lampang FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

47'

J. Phasukihan

87'

K. Nontharath

90'

Ferreira Dos Santos

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff