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Lamia vs Kifisia — Super League 1 2018

Lamia
Lamia
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Kifisia
Kifisia
1/20/2024Super League 1Super League 1 · Round 19Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Lamia40%
×Draw26%
Kifisia34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lamia
1.37
Kifisia
1.25

Lamia creates 10% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 35 away

creates per match

Lamia
0.88
Kifisia
1.00

allows per match

Lamia
1.49
Kifisia
1.86

finishing

Lamia+0.00on par
Kifisia+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lamia ↓

Kifisia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Lamia or draw
66%
Lamia or Kifisia
74%
Draw or Kifisia
60%

Winning margin

Lamia wins by 2+
18%
Kifisia wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Lamia 1+ goals
75%
Lamia 2+ goals
40%
Lamia 3+ goals
16%
Kifisia 1+ goals
71%
Kifisia 2+ goals
36%
Kifisia 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Lamia (draw refunded)
54%
Kifisia (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lamia at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.49 · 117 matches

Kifisia away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.86 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lamia attack 0.88 + Kifisia defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.37

Kifisia attack 1.00 + Lamia defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Lamia scores more
40%
level
26%
Kifisia scores more
34%

Lamia at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Lamia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lamia vs Kifisia

Lamia beat Kifisia 4-1 in Super League 1 on January 20, 2024.

The match was played at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias in Lamia.