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Kifisia vs Lamia — Super League 1 2018

Kifisia
Kifisia
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Lamia
Lamia
9/27/2023Super League 1Super League 1 · Round 6Stadio Kaisarianis Michalis Kritikopoulos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Kifisia43%
×Draw26%
Lamia31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kifisia
1.40
Lamia
1.15

Kifisia creates 22% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 119 away

creates per match

Kifisia
1.26
Lamia
0.70

allows per match

Kifisia
1.59
Lamia
1.54

finishing

Kifisia+0.00on par
Lamia+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kifisia ↓

Lamia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Kifisia or draw
69%
Kifisia or Lamia
74%
Draw or Lamia
57%

Winning margin

Kifisia wins by 2+
20%
Lamia wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Kifisia 1+ goals
75%
Kifisia 2+ goals
41%
Kifisia 3+ goals
17%
Lamia 1+ goals
68%
Lamia 2+ goals
32%
Lamia 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Kifisia (draw refunded)
58%
Lamia (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kifisia at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.59 · 34 matches

Lamia away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.54 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kifisia attack 1.26 + Lamia defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.40

Lamia attack 0.70 + Kifisia defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Kifisia scores more
43%
level
26%
Lamia scores more
31%

Kifisia at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Kifisia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League 1: Kifisia 1–1 Lamia

Kifisia and Lamia drew 1-1 in Super League 1 on September 27, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Kaisarianis Michalis Kritikopoulos in Athens.