Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Lamia vs Asteras Tripolis — Super League 1 2018

Lamia
Lamia
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Asteras Tripolis
Asteras Tripolis
10/19/2024Super League 1Super League 1 · Round 8Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 117+ matches

Lamia35%
×Draw28%
Asteras Tripolis37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lamia
1.12
Asteras Tripolis
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 117 home / 131 away

creates per match

Lamia
0.88
Asteras Tripolis
0.84

allows per match

Lamia
1.49
Asteras Tripolis
1.36

finishing

Lamia+0.00on par
Asteras Tripolis+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lamia ↓

Asteras Tripolis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Lamia or draw
63%
Lamia or Asteras Tripolis
72%
Draw or Asteras Tripolis
65%

Winning margin

Lamia wins by 2+
14%
Asteras Tripolis wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Lamia 1+ goals
67%
Lamia 2+ goals
31%
Lamia 3+ goals
10%
Asteras Tripolis 1+ goals
69%
Asteras Tripolis 2+ goals
33%
Asteras Tripolis 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Lamia (draw refunded)
48%
Asteras Tripolis (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lamia at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.49 · 117 matches

Asteras Tripolis away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.36 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lamia attack 0.88 + Asteras Tripolis defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.12

Asteras Tripolis attack 0.84 + Lamia defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Lamia scores more
35%
level
28%
Asteras Tripolis scores more
37%

Asteras Tripolis at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Asteras Tripolis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League 1: Lamia 0–0 Asteras Tripolis

Lamia and Asteras Tripolis drew 0-0 in Super League 1 on October 19, 2024.

The match was played at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias in Lamia.