Asteras Tripolis 0–0 Lamia: Result & Stats

Asteras Tripolis

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Lamia

4/29/2023

Super League 1 · Relegation Round - 5Stadio Theodoros Kolokotronis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Asteras Tripolis48%

×Draw28%

Lamia25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Asteras TripolisExpected goals in this matchLamia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

0.90

Asteras Tripolis

1.37

Lamia

0.90

Asteras Tripolis creates 52% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 119 away

1.20

creates per match

0.70

1.10

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Asteras Tripolis

1.20

Lamia

0.70

allows per match

Asteras Tripolis

1.10

Lamia

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Asteras Tripolis+0.00on par

Lamia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Asteras Tripolis ↓

Lamia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Asteras Tripolis or draw

75%

Asteras Tripolis or Lamia

72%

Draw or Lamia

52%

Winning margin

Asteras Tripolis wins by 2+

23%

Lamia wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Asteras Tripolis 1+ goals

75%

Asteras Tripolis 2+ goals

40%

Asteras Tripolis 3+ goals

16%

Lamia 1+ goals

59%

Lamia 2+ goals

23%

Lamia 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Asteras Tripolis (draw refunded)

66%

Lamia (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Asteras Tripolis at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.10 · 135 matches

Lamia away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.54 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Asteras Tripolis attack 1.20 + Lamia defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.37

Lamia attack 0.70 + Asteras Tripolis defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Asteras Tripolis scores more

48%

level

28%

Lamia scores more

25%

Asteras Tripolis at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Asteras Tripolis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff