Lamia 1–3 AEK Athens FC: Result & Stats

Lamia

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

AEK Athens FC

2/24/2024

Super League 1 · Round 24Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 117+ matches

Lamia24%

×Draw26%

AEK Athens FC50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LamiaExpected goals in this matchAEK Athens FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.94

1.51

Lamia

0.94

AEK Athens FC

1.51

AEK Athens FC creates 61% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 137 away

0.88

creates per match

1.53

1.49

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Lamia

0.88

AEK Athens FC

1.53

allows per match

Lamia

1.49

AEK Athens FC

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lamia+0.00on par

AEK Athens FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lamia ↓

AEK Athens FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–113%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Lamia or draw

50%

Lamia or AEK Athens FC

74%

Draw or AEK Athens FC

76%

Winning margin

Lamia wins by 2+

8%

AEK Athens FC wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Lamia 1+ goals

61%

Lamia 2+ goals

24%

Lamia 3+ goals

7%

AEK Athens FC 1+ goals

78%

AEK Athens FC 2+ goals

44%

AEK Athens FC 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Lamia (draw refunded)

32%

AEK Athens FC (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lamia at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.49 · 117 matches

AEK Athens FC away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.00 · 137 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lamia attack 0.88 + AEK Athens FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.94

AEK Athens FC attack 1.53 + Lamia defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Lamia scores more

24%

level

26%

AEK Athens FC scores more

50%

AEK Athens FC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "AEK Athens FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff