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AEK Athens FC vs Lamia — Super League 1 2018

AEK Athens FC
AEK Athens FC
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Lamia
Lamia
5/19/2024Super League 1Super League 1 · Championship Round - 10OPAP Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

AEK Athens FC62%
×Draw23%
Lamia15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AEK Athens FC
1.73
Lamia
0.72

AEK Athens FC creates 140% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 119 away

creates per match

AEK Athens FC
1.91
Lamia
0.70

allows per match

AEK Athens FC
0.74
Lamia
1.54

finishing

AEK Athens FC+0.00on par
Lamia+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AEK Athens FC ↓

Lamia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

AEK Athens FC or draw
85%
AEK Athens FC or Lamia
77%
Draw or Lamia
38%

Winning margin

AEK Athens FC wins by 2+
35%
Lamia wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

AEK Athens FC 1+ goals
82%
AEK Athens FC 2+ goals
52%
AEK Athens FC 3+ goals
25%
Lamia 1+ goals
51%
Lamia 2+ goals
16%
Lamia 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

AEK Athens FC (draw refunded)
80%
Lamia (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AEK Athens FC at home — creates 1.91, concedes 0.74 · 137 matches

Lamia away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.54 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AEK Athens FC attack 1.91 + Lamia defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.73

Lamia attack 0.70 + AEK Athens FC defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

AEK Athens FC scores more
62%
level
23%
Lamia scores more
15%

AEK Athens FC at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "AEK Athens FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AEK Athens FC vs Lamia

AEK Athens FC beat Lamia 3-0 in Super League 1 on May 19, 2024.

The match was played at OPAP Arena in Athens.